Will any countries that are not currently known to have nuclear weapons test a functioning nuclear warhead in 2022?
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resolved Jan 1
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A confirmed test or attack with a nuclear warhead by any country other than China, France, Russia, United Kingdom, United States, India, North Korea, Pakistan, and yes, Israel will cause this to resolve 'yes'.
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Since the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty in 1968, only 4 countries have joined the nuclear club, which gives a base rate of 7.4% chance every year. There's only a quarter of the year left so I'd estimate it's about 2% base rate. Could adjust up or down if you feel like Iran is particularly close to a nuclear weapon.
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