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Will at least 10,000 human beings die of H5N1 before the end of 2023?

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I bet "No" because the rate of the rate of infection from poultry to humans would be lower than 0.02-0.03%. The number of poultry infected by H5N1 is 61,259,002 in 2023. The rate of infection from poultry to humans was not shown, but it is said to be extremely low. On the other hand, the rate of fatality in humans infected by H5N1. Based on some previous fatality rates, the average fatality rate is estimated at 57%(+-16%). Assuming the number of humans who die due to H5N1 flu is 10,000, the estimated the humans who are infected by H5N1 is 13,698 - 24,390, which means the rate of infection from poultry to humans is 0.02 - 0.03%. It seems too high taking the situation of the H5N1 flu outbreak in the US in 2014-2015 into consideration consideration. Therefore, I don't think that 10,000 or more people will die due to H5N1 flu.

Reference:

Centers of Disease Control and Prevention, H5N1 Bird Flu Detections across the United States (Backyard and Commercial), Retrieved by 11.09.2023 https://www.cdc.gov/flu/avianflu/data-map-commercial.html

Wikipedia, Avian influenza, Retrieved by 11.09.2023, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Avian_influenza

Think you need to preface 10,000 or more. About to put life savings in og not

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@dunningkruger Like that?

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