Will there be an edge case where it is hard to determine if Russia has invaded the Ukraine before March?
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resolved Feb 24
Resolved
NO
Will we be unsure if Russia has invaded Ukraine as of February 28th? Fifth columns, uncertain allies, planes falling out of the sky, unauthorized incursions, back-and-forth action within Crimea... the possibilities are endless. This will resolve NO if we are sure that Russia has definitely invaded. Feb 22, 6:20pm: Clarification of terms: as of February 28th, will I feel good making a clear yes or no statement as to weather the Ukraine (including Luhansk and Donetsk regions, but excluding the Crimea) has been invaded by Russia as indicated by an influx of Russian troops that were not there in January 2022.
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#🇺🇦🇷🇺 Ukraine-Russia war
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Well, they might cross the border and a border is the edge of a territory.
P.S., I should add that that was my first trade bigger than $1 that I've made on this market since ANTE. I made it in part because I'm thinking 33% is probably the right %.
Happy to buy some YES. Expecting NO. We'll see. I am not currently fully convinced that the movements seen in the Ukraine were new troops on the ground, rather than pre-existing separatist troops. If there is no clarification of the situation before March, this will resolve YES, because, gosh, it was hard to determine if an invasion actually happened, and there was nothing like a consensus in the major international news reports. Even given clear resolution criteria for the invasion market, it was not clear if an invasion happened. That said, I took a break from the news today, so maybe clarification happened and I missed it.
From what I can tell as of now, Russia is purposely generating misleading movements and actions within the Donbas region, arguably definitely a continuation of an, "infiltration," which had already happened for a long time, using Russian assets already existing in Donbas to create confusion and stochastic chaos which would further justify an actual invasion, but without doing the invasion yet, or waiting until the last possible moment to actually send troops or forces in, or perhaps even sending in troops secretly, which we won't know anyway, because it's secret. Meanwhile, Western leaders know that the Russia strategy is in fact, confusion and murkiness, so they are attempting to either rhetorically call out the pending invasion as an invasion, creating a game theory situation in which Russia attempts to bait them into saying that an invasion has occurred, so that they can then say, "See? They are warmongering by saying there is an invasion when we have not sent in a single troop." The whole situation is edge case by design.
"Putin's Invasion Maneuvers Seek to Divide and Confuse" -- https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/2022/02/23/ukraine-putins-invasion-maneuvers-seek-divide-confuse-us-allies/6891713001/?gnt-cfr=1 ..."Russia's approach to geopolitical conflict is to "create as much murkiness and doubt as possible," said Kristine Berzina of the German Marshall Fund's Alliance for Securing Democracy. She said that may have been part of Putin's calculus – trying to force internal dispute about how far Western allies should go with sanctions based on Moscow's movements into the separatist-backed areas."
From Duncan's own comment, this should resolve as YES, because per his own admission, it is hard for him to determine...assuming there is not some overwhelming movement by March 1st, 2022. ( https://manifold.markets/Duncan/what-day-will-russia-invade-ukraine ) : Duncan, 12 hours ago Duncan bought M$ 1 of #7 12 hours ago I still don't know what day the invasion happened.
As of February 28th, will I feel good making a clear yes or no statement as to weather the Ukraine (including Luhansk and Donetsk regions, but excluding the Crimea) has been invaded by Russia as indicated by an influx of Russian troops that were not there in January 2022. Please let me know if you need more clarification, including clarification on my "feeling good" about a decision. I will say, I do not know if Ukraine has been invaded or not as of the posting of this comment.
Outcome might be controversial. So one precise definition of uncertain is: will this market be NA, PROB or unresolved by 2nd March: https://manifold.markets/Duncan/will-russia-invade-ukraine-before-t
Are we counting the recent events as "hard to tell"? It doesn't seem like the US is acting like this is an "invasion", and from what I can tell there has always been a Russian military presence in Donbas? I was imagining a clearer, "invade the actual country and storm the capitol, roll in with tanks" kind of thing, not a bullshit "peacekeeping mission" that isn't recognized internationally as an invasion. https://www.reuters.com/world/us-casts-doubt-biden-summit-with-putin-eyes-new-sanctions-tuesday-official-2022-02-21/
Brilliant question.
Putin is well known for this kind of tactic.
Love the idea behind this market
Uncertain if this should be tagged as an arbitrage opportunity. Perhaps a hedge?

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