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Currently betting under the assumption that BBC or NPR using the proposed "hMPXV" would make this question resolve "YES"
Or "MPV" as in the following excerpt: "When you say no sex, you're mischaracterizing that MPV, also known as monkeypox, is a sex-associated transmission, which it can be, but it's not the end all be all."
From: https://www.npr.org/2022/07/31/1114670483/monkeypox-messaging-stigma
@cos Same, as I mentioned in my comments on https://manifold.markets/ZviMowshowitz/will-zvi-end-up-writing-3-or-more-p, I'm not too confident predicting the technical details, but I'm sure they'll find a way to SOMEHOW call it something else.
Or perhaps, using MPV without specifying what it stands for, but that conflicts with the clarification in the market description. I'm open to arguments for which is best.
Another possibility, which I'm not sure I like as much, would be if the article does not include the clarification "Monkeypox virus (MPV)" at any point.
@Duncan The market description says it's whether monkeypox is "referred to by another name." I could see MPV going either way, since it's still short for monkeypox. Is "Dick" the same name as "Richard"? I dunno.
"hMPXV" I lean more towards different, because they clearly made a deliberate choice to add the "human" in there.
The biggest thing I want confirmation on is I think there's a decent chance they find some esoteric technical justification to refer to it differently, without formally renaming it. Like the switch from AIDs to HIV, or coming up with a name for a specific strain, and then only using the strain names, not the virus name. As I read the market description that would qualify, but I don't want to get burned on a technicality.
@MichaelWheatley That sort of change would resolve the market as YES. If Monkeypox-beta is referred to simply as Beta (and Monkeypox-alpha is not used or referred to as Alpha), or they use Orthopoxvirus-22, or it is referred to as Acquired Pox Synonym, those would all be YES conditions.
Neon Nuke
sold Ṁ19 NO from 21% to 23% Neon Nuke
bought Ṁ20 NO at 21% 
RadonLlama
bought Ṁ10 NO at 21% 
Max Bittker
sold Ṁ17 YES from 25% to 21% 
Parker Andrew
bought Ṁ10 NO from 26% to 25% 
Kristian Thomsen
bought Ṁ10 NO from 27% to 26% Kristian Thomsen
bought Ṁ10 NO from 28% to 27% 
d6e
bought Ṁ10 NO from 30% to 28% Max Bittker
bought Ṁ10 YES from 26% to 30% Max Bittker
bought Ṁ10 YES from 22% to 26% 
Nicolas Delon
bought Ṁ10 NO from 23% to 22% 
Javier Prieto
bought Ṁ10 NO from 24% to 23% Javier Prieto
bought Ṁ10 NO from 26% to 24% 
zeyu yang
sold Ṁ38 NO from 21% to 26% 
Mason
created limit order for Ṁ30 NO at 85% (cancelled) 
Andrew McGough
sold Ṁ6 YES from 23% to 21% 
VelocityBot
sold Ṁ2 YES from 24% to 23% 
白麓
sold Ṁ18 NO from 22% to 24% 
wasabipesto
filled limit order Ṁ17/Ṁ18 YES at 21% (cancelled) 
eulerphi
bought Ṁ10 NO from 23% to 22% 
Diossley Rodriguez
bought Ṁ10 NO from 25% to 23% 
Old meme
bought Ṁ5 NO from 27% to 25% 
edgrr
bought Ṁ10 NO from 29% to 27% 
Michael's Bot LaboratoryBot
filled limit order Ṁ3/Ṁ100 NO at 29% (cancelled) 
Daniel Kogler
bought Ṁ10 YES from 26% to 30% 
Coafos
bought Ṁ10 NO from 29% to 26% 
Ivan
created limit order for Ṁ100 NO at 50% Ivan
created limit order for Ṁ36 YES at 18% 
Jasmine
bought Ṁ5 NO from 30% to 29% 
Gavriel
filled limit order Ṁ23/Ṁ50 NO at 30% VelocityBot
filled limit order Ṁ23/Ṁ34 YES at 34% (cancelled) VelocityBot
filled limit order Ṁ55/Ṁ55 NO at 26% 
horse
sold Ṁ39 NO from 22% to 32% 
John Beshir
bought Ṁ50 NO from 35% to 22% 
3q8tgfqhuefg
sold Ṁ2 NO from 34% to 35% 3q8tgfqhuefg
bought Ṁ2 NO from 35% to 34% 3q8tgfqhuefg
sold Ṁ2 NO from 34% to 35% 3q8tgfqhuefg
bought Ṁ2 NO from 35% to 34% 
Annalise Norling
bought Ṁ10 YES from 29% to 35% 
wavedash
created limit order for Ṁ100 NO at 65% VelocityBot
sold Ṁ6 NO from 27% to 29% 
ghostkay
bought Ṁ50 NO from 43% to 27% Ivan
bought Ṁ10 YES from 38% to 43% 
Anton
bought Ṁ20 NO from 46% to 38% 
Jack
created limit order for Ṁ20 YES at 17% Jack
created limit order for Ṁ50 NO at 71% Jack
bought Ṁ20 NO from 56% to 46% VelocityBot
filled limit order Ṁ28/Ṁ80 NO at 56% (cancelled) 
Orpheus
sold Ṁ120 NO from 30% to 74% VelocityBot
filled limit order Ṁ17/Ṁ43 YES at 30% (cancelled) YES shares
232
163
148
140
114
50
45
42
42
NO shares
831
147
94
77
74
74
67
55
