Will monkeypox be renamed?
66%
chance
Aug 2, 2023
M$3,591 bet
ScottLawrence
Scott Lawrence is betting NO at 74%
0
cos
Cosmo is betting YES at 19%
Currently betting under the assumption that BBC or NPR using the proposed "hMPXV" would make this question resolve "YES"
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cos
Cosmo is betting YES at 19%
Or "MPV" as in the following excerpt: "When you say no sex, you're mischaracterizing that MPV, also known as monkeypox, is a sex-associated transmission, which it can be, but it's not the end all be all." From: https://www.npr.org/2022/07/31/1114670483/monkeypox-messaging-stigma
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MichaelWheatley
Michael Wheatley is betting YES at 65%
@cos Same, as I mentioned in my comments on https://manifold.markets/ZviMowshowitz/will-zvi-end-up-writing-3-or-more-p, I'm not too confident predicting the technical details, but I'm sure they'll find a way to SOMEHOW call it something else.
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Duncan
Duncan is betting NO at 65%
@cos That's interesting. I want to say if there is a statement like MPV is short for MonkeyPox Virus, then it doesn't count, but if they say it's short for Modern Pox Virus (or similar) it does.
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Duncan
Duncan is betting NO at 65%
Or perhaps, using MPV without specifying what it stands for, but that conflicts with the clarification in the market description. I'm open to arguments for which is best.
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Duncan
Duncan is betting NO at 65%
Another possibility, which I'm not sure I like as much, would be if the article does not include the clarification "Monkeypox virus (MPV)" at any point.
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cos
Cosmo sold M$111 of YES
@Duncan I am fleeing from uncertainty. (I had no idea I was carrying so much of the market, lol.)
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MichaelWheatley
Michael Wheatley bought M$20 of YES
@Duncan The market description says it's whether monkeypox is "referred to by another name." I could see MPV going either way, since it's still short for monkeypox. Is "Dick" the same name as "Richard"? I dunno.
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MichaelWheatley
Michael Wheatley is betting YES at 39%
"hMPXV" I lean more towards different, because they clearly made a deliberate choice to add the "human" in there.
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MichaelWheatley
Michael Wheatley is betting YES at 39%
The biggest thing I want confirmation on is I think there's a decent chance they find some esoteric technical justification to refer to it differently, without formally renaming it. Like the switch from AIDs to HIV, or coming up with a name for a specific strain, and then only using the strain names, not the virus name. As I read the market description that would qualify, but I don't want to get burned on a technicality.
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Duncan
Duncan is betting NO at 39%
@MichaelWheatley That sort of change would resolve the market as YES. If Monkeypox-beta is referred to simply as Beta (and Monkeypox-alpha is not used or referred to as Alpha), or they use Orthopoxvirus-22, or it is referred to as Acquired Pox Synonym, those would all be YES conditions.
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MichaelWheatley
Michael Wheatley is betting YES at 65%
@Duncan Great, thanks for that clarification.
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MichaelWheatley
Michael Wheatley is betting YES at 35%
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Duncan
Duncan is betting NO at 35%
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JoyVoid
joy_void_joy is betting YES at 35%
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Duncan
Duncan is betting NO at 35%
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JoyVoid
joy_void_joy is betting YES at 35%
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ScottLawrence
Typo: npr, I assume, not NRP.
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Duncan
Duncan is betting NO at 40%
@ScottLawrence Yes. Thank you for catching that.
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