Duncan avatar
closes Aug 2, 2023
Will monkeypox be renamed?
23%
chance
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Dacaveofwonders avatar
Tiger Lava Lamp
bought Ṁ10 of YES
pc123 avatar
pc123
bought Ṁ50 of NO
Michael avatar
Michael
is predicting YES at 51%
ScottLawrence avatar
Scott Lawrence
is predicting NO at 74%
cos avatar
cos
is predicting YES at 19%
Currently betting under the assumption that BBC or NPR using the proposed "hMPXV" would make this question resolve "YES"
cos avatar
cos
is predicting YES at 19%
Or "MPV" as in the following excerpt: "When you say no sex, you're mischaracterizing that MPV, also known as monkeypox, is a sex-associated transmission, which it can be, but it's not the end all be all." From: https://www.npr.org/2022/07/31/1114670483/monkeypox-messaging-stigma
MichaelWheatley avatar
Michael Wheatley
is predicting YES at 65%
@cos Same, as I mentioned in my comments on https://manifold.markets/ZviMowshowitz/will-zvi-end-up-writing-3-or-more-p, I'm not too confident predicting the technical details, but I'm sure they'll find a way to SOMEHOW call it something else.
Duncan avatar
Duncan
is predicting NO at 65%
@cos That's interesting. I want to say if there is a statement like MPV is short for MonkeyPox Virus, then it doesn't count, but if they say it's short for Modern Pox Virus (or similar) it does.
Duncan avatar
Duncan
is predicting NO at 65%
Or perhaps, using MPV without specifying what it stands for, but that conflicts with the clarification in the market description. I'm open to arguments for which is best.
Duncan avatar
Duncan
is predicting NO at 65%
Another possibility, which I'm not sure I like as much, would be if the article does not include the clarification "Monkeypox virus (MPV)" at any point.
cos avatar
cos
sold Ṁ111 of YES
@Duncan I am fleeing from uncertainty. (I had no idea I was carrying so much of the market, lol.)
MichaelWheatley avatar
Michael Wheatley
bought Ṁ20 of YES
@Duncan The market description says it's whether monkeypox is "referred to by another name." I could see MPV going either way, since it's still short for monkeypox. Is "Dick" the same name as "Richard"? I dunno.
MichaelWheatley avatar
Michael Wheatley
is predicting YES at 39%
"hMPXV" I lean more towards different, because they clearly made a deliberate choice to add the "human" in there.
MichaelWheatley avatar
Michael Wheatley
is predicting YES at 39%
The biggest thing I want confirmation on is I think there's a decent chance they find some esoteric technical justification to refer to it differently, without formally renaming it. Like the switch from AIDs to HIV, or coming up with a name for a specific strain, and then only using the strain names, not the virus name. As I read the market description that would qualify, but I don't want to get burned on a technicality.
Duncan avatar
Duncan
is predicting NO at 39%
@MichaelWheatley That sort of change would resolve the market as YES. If Monkeypox-beta is referred to simply as Beta (and Monkeypox-alpha is not used or referred to as Alpha), or they use Orthopoxvirus-22, or it is referred to as Acquired Pox Synonym, those would all be YES conditions.
MichaelWheatley avatar
Michael Wheatley
is predicting YES at 65%
@Duncan Great, thanks for that clarification.
MichaelWheatley avatar
Michael Wheatley
is predicting YES at 35%
Duncan avatar
Duncan
is predicting NO at 35%
JoyVoid avatar
joy_void_joy
is predicting YES at 35%
Duncan avatar
Duncan
is predicting NO at 35%
JoyVoid avatar
joy_void_joy
is predicting YES at 35%
ScottLawrence avatar
Typo: npr, I assume, not NRP.
Duncan avatar
Duncan
is predicting NO at 40%
@ScottLawrence Yes. Thank you for catching that.