Resolution Criteria

This market resolves YES if Bluesky publicly reports, or a credible third-party source confirms, that the platform has exceeded 50 million monthly active users (MAU) at any point before December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

Acceptable sources for resolution:

• Official Bluesky blog posts, press releases, or SEC filings

• Statements from Bluesky CEO Jay Graber or official Bluesky accounts

• Reporting from major outlets (NYT, WSJ, Bloomberg, The Verge, TechCrunch) citing internal data or people familiar with the matter

• App analytics firms (Sensor Tower, Apptopia, data.ai) if their methodology is clearly stated and they have a track record of reasonable accuracy

The market resolves NO if none of the above sources report 50M+ MAU by the close date.

Edge Cases

• If Bluesky merges with another platform or is acquired, users of the combined entity count if the Bluesky app/brand persists

• "Monthly active users" means users who logged in and took at least one action (post, like, follow, etc.) within a 30-day period—standard industry definition

• If conflicting sources report different numbers, I will use the most credible source or wait for clarification before resolving

• Bots and spam accounts should be excluded per Bluesky's own methodology; if a source reports "users" without specifying MAU or excluding bots, I will seek clarification before resolving