Resolves as YES if strong evidence of an ancient Phoenician/Greek colony is discovered in subsaharan Africa before January 1st 2050.

Resolution criteria

What counts (YES):

• A permanent or semi-permanent settlement attributed to Phoenician/Punic (incl. Carthaginian) or Greek colonists, dated to antiquity (here: before 700 CE).

• Evidence must indicate sustained occupation (not a short expeditionary camp), e.g., durable structures (houses/temples/warehouses/harbor works), refuse layers, burials/cemeteries, streets/plots, or storage facilities.

• Cultural/ethnic attribution to Phoenician/Punic or Greek is supported by multiple, converging lines of evidence, for example:

  • Inscriptions in situ in Phoenician/Punic or Greek;

  • Diagnostic material culture (e.g., amphora/ceramic typologies, architectural features, ritual objects) in primary context;

  • Absolute dating (radiocarbon/OSL/thermoluminescence/dendro) aligning with known Phoenician/Greek horizons;

  • Bioarchaeological/isotopic/ancient DNA consistent with Mediterranean migrants (not required, but strengthens the case);

  • Toponymic or textual references matched to the site plus archaeological confirmation.

• Carthaginian/Punic sites count as “Phoenician.”

• Reinterpretation of a previously known site counts if the new, strong evidence establishing Phoenician/Greek colonization becomes publicly available before the deadline.

What does not count (NO):

• Trade contact only (e.g., scattered imports, isolated amphorae, wanderer coins, a shipwreck, or a beach cache) without settlement evidence.

• Temporary camps or seasonal stations lacking durable structures and stratified occupation deposits.

• Medieval or later Greek communities (e.g., Byzantine/Medieval Greek after 700 CE) or Roman-only sites without a specifically Greek colonial phase.

• North Africa north of the Sahara (see geography definition below).

• Single sensational claims without independent scholarly validation, or known forgeries/hoaxes.

Geography

For this market, Sub-Saharan Africa follows the UN geoscheme: any site located within Western, Eastern, Middle, or Southern Africa (including offshore territories of those states, e.g., Cape Verde), and excluding Northern Africa (Algeria, Egypt, Libya, Morocco, Sudan, Tunisia, Western Sahara). Canary/Madeira islands do not count (not in African states); Cape Verde would count.

Evidence threshold (“strong evidence”)

“Strong evidence” means the discovery is publicly documented before the deadline (see Timing) in at least one peer-reviewed archaeological publication or a formal report/monograph by a recognized national heritage authority or equivalent, and receives corroboration from at least one independent expert institution (e.g., subsequent peer-reviewed commentary, an academic society statement, or coverage in a top-tier journal outlet summarizing the vetted research). High-quality preprints may contribute if accompanied by verifiable primary data and expert corroboration (not just press).

If the claim is actively disputed by multiple qualified experts and lacks a prevailing scholarly consensus, the market will remain unresolved until consensus emerges; if none emerges by the deadline, it resolves NO.

Timing

• Deadline: 00:00 UTC on January 1, 2050.

• The relevant date is when the strong evidence becomes publicly available (publication, official technical report, or equivalent detailed release), not the excavation date.

• If decisive evidence is discovered earlier but only becomes public after the deadline, this resolves NO.

Edge cases & notes

• Underwater/near-shore sites count if they constitute a settlement (e.g., submerged harbor town) within the territorial waters of a Sub-Saharan African state and meet the colony criteria; shipwrecks alone do not.

• A military or trading outpost can count if there is clear, repeated occupation with durable infrastructure (i.e., a garrisoned fort/post with buildings and stratigraphy), not a transient camp.

• Mixed or creolized contexts still count if a substantial resident community is materially and epigraphically Phoenician/Punic or Greek.

• If multiple candidate sites appear, a single qualifying site is sufficient for YES.

Sources for resolution

Priority will be given to:

• Peer-reviewed journals (e.g., Antiquity, Journal of Mediterranean Archaeology, African Archaeological Review, BASOR, Science, Nature),

• Official releases/technical reports from national antiquities/heritage authorities or UNESCO-affiliated bodies,

• Consensus statements or assessments by recognized academic institutions or societies.