Resolution criteria

This market resolves to YES if, before January 1, 2040, Vladimir Putin officially and permanently abolishes national elections (such as presidential or parliamentary elections) in the Russian Federation through a constitutional amendment, legislative act, presidential decree, or official state declaration.

This market resolves to NO if:

• National elections continue to be conducted in Russia through January 1, 2040 (regardless of independent assessments of their competitiveness or fairness).

• Elections are only temporarily suspended or postponed (e.g., under temporary martial law or a state of emergency) without a decree or law establishing permanent abolition.

• Vladimir Putin dies, incapacitates, or permanently leaves office prior to 2040 without having permanently abolished national elections during his tenure.

The market creator may rely on official state announcements via Kremlin.ru or major international news agencies (e.g., Reuters, BBC, AP) to verify resolution.

Background

Following 2020 amendments to the Constitution of the Russian Federation, Vladimir Putin's presidential term count was reset, allowing him to run for election in 2024 and potentially remain in office for two additional six-year terms until 2036. While international political analysts frequently describe Russian elections as managed or autocratic, the formal legal structure of the Russian state continues to mandate regular presidential and legislative election cycles.