Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to YES if the SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) closes in the red (negative net change compared to the previous trading day's close) on the first day SpaceX common stock begins public trading on a major US stock exchange. Otherwise, this market will resolve to NO.

• First day of trading: Defined as the day SpaceX common stock (expected ticker SPCX) officially begins trading publicly. This is currently scheduled for Friday, June 12, 2026, but the actual date may shift.

• "Closes down": The closing price of SPY is lower than its closing price from the preceding trading day.

• Source of truth: Yahoo Finance SPY historical data will be used. If Yahoo Finance is unavailable, Google Finance SPY will be used as a fallback.

• Precondition: If the SpaceX IPO does not occur on or before June 12, 2026, this market will resolve to N/A.

Background

SpaceX publicly released its S-1 prospectus on May 20, 2026, targeting a $1.75 to $2 trillion valuation by offering shares at a fixed $135 apiece. The roadshow commenced in early June, with final pricing expected on June 11 and first trading scheduled on the Nasdaq (symbol: SPCX) for Friday, June 12, 2026. This offering represents the largest stock market debut in history, opening direct public access to SpaceX's rocket, satellite (Starlink), and AI.