Will The Boring Company tunnels total passenger capacity exceed 100k/hr by 2026
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9
แน€541
2026
24%
chance

As of writing max capcity is 4,400 passengers/hour from the Las Vegas Convention Center Loop. More tunnels are now under construction.

https://www.nextbigfuture.com/2021/05/vegas-boring-loop-surpasses-4400-passengers-per-hour-target-in-testing.html

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โ€œBut on the ground, after seven years, Boring is only operating a mere 2.4 miles of operational tunnel, according to Las Vegas agencies and contracts reviewed by Fortune.โ€ https://fortune.com/2023/11/20/elon-musk-boring-company-las-vegas-tunnels-former-employee-interviews/amp/

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@KevinBurke This citation is irrelevant since the Boring Company was busy developing new TBMs during this period and the milage metric does not represent any progress in R&D.

You seem to confuse max capacity with demonstrated capacity. Max capacity of LVCC is much more even without an upgrade to vans.

https://youtu.be/J8C7SEQtSQ8

predicts YES

@Berg simulations of max throughput are of far less interest than what is actually possible in the system. If they can get travel times down and throughput up then we can use those numbers.

8,000+ passengers/hour has not yet been demonstrated and should not count towards the market's number.

This is similar to CGPGrey's video on optimal versus realistic loading times for airplanes https://youtu.be/oAHbLRjF0vo. There may be an optimal/maximum for a system but if it only works in simulations then it isn't very useful here in the real world.

predicts YES

@DouglasKaiser I didn't state any capacity, I just pointed out that calling 4400 pph max capacity is incorrect

predicts YES

Update: The Boring Company just tweeted they have approval from Las Vegas to expand by 65 miles and 69 stations

https://twitter.com/boringcompany/status/1653936706373189633?t=A6khpqeuMmiFNXNAuV_w6g&s=19