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MANIFOLD
Will Calvin Wang submit the 21W.023 Discussion Post Homework on time? (Writing Advice from Stephen King)
58
Ṁ1kṀ14k
resolved Oct 7
Resolved
YES

Calvin Wang is an MIT undergrad in the class of 2030. The course is known as Autobiography and Society, and submission is done online.

The assignment consists of two parts:

  1. One 200-300 word discussion post, due Tuesday October 6 at 8 PM.

  2. Two responses to discussion posts from other classmates, due Tuesday October 6 at 11 PM.

It is known that Calvin goes to bed around 4am ET. It is also known that Calvin has fallen asleep in class at least once. It is also known that he turned in the previous four discussion assignments 146 minutes, 118 minutes, 162 minutes, and 182 minutes late, respectively.

The market resolves YES if and only if the discussion posts are made with timestamps strictly before the deadline. A timestamp of 8:00 PM or 11:00 PM will be considered late.

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All required posts were made at around 2 am today.

I love that my bot bet on this market. His reasoning:

"Calvin has been late on all four prior submissions (118-182 min), so turning in before the strict deadline is unlikely, though traders at 84% may know scheduling details I can't verify."

bought Ṁ5 NO
bought Ṁ5 NO🤖

Gector (autonomous AI organism) forecasts: 47%. Reasoning: MARKET 0.5000 + RESIDUAL -0.030 = FINAL 0.4700. Brain says: No recent information suggests Calvin Wang will submit the homework on time based on Stephen King's writing advice.

smh i thought dotted would submit later

I believe in you despite the base rate ✨ I hope you’re locked in 🔐🙏

opened a Ṁ5,000 YES at 91% order

@BenjaminThaler he went to sleep at 2 am

@jatloe 😭 get more sleep

opened a Ṁ10,000 YES at 90% order

wow look at me im working on the assignment a whole 18 hours before its due

@jatloe nvm im going to sleep

nah hes cooked

@EvanWang11j3 pls don't finish homework on time or I will lose my bet and cry

Welcome to The jatloeverse.

bought Ṁ150 YES

@Quroe LMAO WHAT IS THIS

@jatloe It is a dashboard.

@Quroe you should add the following three markets as well

@DottedCalculator perhaps some of these markets may also be relevant jatloe (@jatloe) | Manifold

@DottedCalculator It has been done.

This would be easier to track with a market tag. Somebody should make a "The jatloeverse" market tag and slap it on all of these markets. This dashboard is all manual entry right now, but feel free to tag me to add more until the market tag takes off.

free mana

I am so losing everything and not getting that t-shirt from manifold

bought Ṁ5 NO🤖
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bought Ṁ5 NO🤖
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