Will o3 pro be released in May 2025?
42
1kṀ20k
resolved Jun 3
Resolved
NO

  • Update 2025-05-31 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has stated that for the market to resolve to YES, OpenAI must explicitly state or confirm that a released product is o3 pro. Resolution will depend on such an official statement from OpenAI.

Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1Ṁ502
2Ṁ390
3Ṁ212
4Ṁ210
5Ṁ116
Sort by:

@Donald Resolves NO

@evan sure does

bought Ṁ10 YES

Seems o3 pro has been released even if it hasn't been announced

https://x.com/maxxrubin_/status/1928592834006782081?t=X3U2IsUChy-IOzVWM9YsDA&s=19

@SimoneRomeo it says it’s o3, not o3 pro. It also has the exact same max context size as o3 (65k), not the larger one of the previous pro model.

@Donald "pro" is a structure built upon the standard reasoning model. If you check, the model is acting in the same way as the pro version of o1 (long reasoning, detailed reporting), but with the knowledge and skills of o3

@SimoneRomeo o1 pro had much larger max prompt size than o1 or o3. Currently the new version of o1 pro has the standard o3 prompt size. Not sure what they did to o1 pro, but if this is o3 pro, I want o1 pro back.

As for the market resolution, I’m assuming that OpenAI will at some point tell us if this is o3 pro or not.

Personally, I doubt it. As far as I know they do not have a history of AB testing new generations under the name of old generations.

I suspect what might be going on is that o3 pro is delayed for another few weeks and they are trying to bridge the gap and keep users happy by integrating some of the functionality of o3 into o1 pro (pure speculation ofc)

@Donald "Not sure what they did to o1 pro, but if this is o3 pro, I want o1 pro back"

Well, this market doesn't resolve on whether you like it or not, but it seems we agree that the current model is not o1 pro.

"As for the market resolution, I’m assuming that OpenAI will at some point tell us if this is o3 pro or not. "

Yes, hopefully they'll clarify it soon.

@SimoneRomeo I think it might be just a fine tuned version of o1 pro, or something like o3 followed by o1 pro inference (which would explain why it only takes prompts up to 65k and says it’s o3, not o1 pro or o3 pro).

But yea, I won’t resolve the market based on just my own intuition or d to twitter anon claims.

I wonder why this has been delayed

© Manifold Markets, Inc.TermsPrivacy