This market will resolve to "yes" if a fresh install of the current supported version of Google Chrome for Microsoft Windows has third-party cookies enabled by default.
Related questions
The recent CMA report gives Google a lot of tasks to be done.
https://twitter.com/SimonJHarris/status/1783868818697179346
The two big ones are to totally re-do the consent UX and to start or make arrangements with a governance organization.
They're also going to have to make assurances about how their new "Privacy Sandbox" system doesn't advantage their own sites such as YouTube.
With all that to be done, and a slower rate of progress than in 2021-2023, it would be hard to pass inspection by CMA within calendar year 2025. It would be a crash project and they seem to be making less progress in every quarterly report.
Appendix 1A: Google’s final commitments (publishing.service.gov.uk) with the CMA expire Feb 2028. See para 34.
No one outside of Google believes the criteria in the commitments will be achieved. See trials of First Party Sets for example. One participant.