Will Facebook users with de-personalized ads have better consumer outcomes?
4
100Ṁ75
2035
46%
chance

This question is conditional on (1) Meta offers a meaningfully de-personalized version of Facebook advertising in some jurisdiction (not "less personalized") and (2) research is published that compares some consumer outcomes for users of personalized and de-personalized ads.

This question will resolve to true if Facebook users with meaningfully de-personalized ads have more favorable consumer outcomes reported on in published research than Facebook users with personalized ads.

Meaningfully de-personalized: advertising may be selected by language or region or by the context in which it appears, but not by user age, gender, other personal demographic or economic data, by any cross-context data, or high-resolution location data that would identify locations more accurately than the size of the median city in the country in which the ad appears.

Consumer outcomes: satisfaction with purchases or vendor, reported intent to re-purchase from a vendor (higher is better), credit card chargebacks, complaints to law enforcement, complaints to vendor self-regulation groups, product returns (lower is better)

References

https://techcrunch.com/2024/11/12/europes-dma-forces-meta-towards-less-personalized-ads/

https://www.nber.org/papers/w31692

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=4635884

https://blog.zgp.org/deception-design/

https://redtape.substack.com/p/facebook-acknowledges-its-in-a-global

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