Will Hakeem Jeffries receive the most Speaker votes on the first ballot?

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YES

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In the very next vote for the Speaker of the House on the floor of the US Congress, will the most votes on the first ballot go to Hakeem Jeffries?

Hakeem Jeffries need not have a majority of votes to win, only the most of any names that receive votes.

(In the event of something weird, I'll set the end date at the beginning of the next Congress, but this market should be over far sooner.)

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Free mana

bought Ṁ100 of YES

aaaargh misread the question and lost 50 mana for no reason

bought Ṁ100 of NO

What about a tie? @Domer

predicted YES

FWIW, given how the description is worded I would consider a tie to be a NO.

predicted NO

@SemioticRivalry If someone else receives the same number of votes, Hakeem did not receive the most votes, so it'd be a No.

predicted NO

theres a "will any republican vote for Hakeem Jeffries" at 13% while this is at 74%. whichever way it goes some folks could load up and make some money.

predicted YES

@PeteLastname What if no Republican votes for Hakeem, but they vote for someone other than Jordan?

predicted NO

Jim Jordan wants to put people on the record who don't want him. (Never mind that Scalise didn't pull this BS.)

The question is: Does Patrick McHenry want to put people on the record for voting against Jim Jordan?

I regret not getting into this one

predicted NO

Which GOP HR is going to stick her neck out to cause problems for no reason whatsoever, where Jim Jordan is nominating Steve Scalise? Even for GQP, can't you be a team player for once?

predicted YES

Why is this market spiking? Are the R's not all voting for Scalise in the floor vote?

predicted NO

@robm Bunch of Rs are saying they won't vote for Scalise, TBD if they follow through with the threats

predicted NO

@Domer Many of them seem to be saying it with qualifications. "I'll vote for McCarthy until he tells me not to". You can never tell what Lusty Lauren will do out there in a big crowd.

bought Ṁ5 of YES

I don’t See the GOP coalescing around one candidate on the first vote. Time will tell.

predicted NO

@beevoid The whole point of this meeting is to do the votes in private, and have everyone vote for the winner in public. Even they can't be so stupid as to do it another way.

bought Ṁ100 of NO

@FrederickNorris This is dangerously close to betting against GOP dysfunction.

predicted NO

@WrongoPhD I think the adults may have to stand down and elect Jim Jordan, which is my least desired result, but it is also possible Gaetz, Hero of the Stupid, will endorse Scalise, who is also a disaster, but still less than Jordan.

"Hakeem Jeffries need not have a majority of votes to win, only the most of any names that receive votes." This isn't true, he needs a majority to win (in this case, 5 Republicans need to join.) There's a reason it took 15 tries to elect McCarthy in the first place