The current Director General, Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, believes that COVID-19 will no longer be a major international concern by the end of this year.
The criteria for this to resolve as yes is that the World Health Organization officially declares the COVID-19 pandemic to be over.
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@DoNotSayMyName When did the WHO "declare the pandemic to be over"? This has definitely NOT happened. I suggest resolve as N/A.
@DoNotSayMyName I consider this wrongly resolved. It should reopen. See this similar question on Metaculus: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/8033/date-who-announces-end-of-covid-19-pandemic/
@johnleoks You know anyone? In the FAQ I can neither find how to deal with this, nor can I find how to find a mod.
@DoNotSayMyName Hey! Do you have a source you were going off? Would love to see it given the dissenting comments
@ian Just a follow-up ping to you. What's the protocol and timeframe for situations like this?
@ian @Primer After further review, we have decided to leave the market to stand as it is. The creator @DoNotSayMyName hasn't shown significant indication of attempting to defraud users and held no active position.
Although the market was "misresolved" (arguable, but by the title and definition most can agree it was misresolved), our current guidelines state creators do have the final say in these situations if it isn't fraud. Although these haven't been updated in some time and this will prompt us to review them and see if we want to make any changes.
@DavidChee Thanks for looking into this, much appreciated. I think leaving resolution to the market creator is the wrong policy for this site in the long run. I do understand how difficult it is to come up with clear criteria (Metaculus is very good on this, but they still struggle, see for example their 'NATO article 5' market, or the one I referenced above). And I suppose Manifold has orders of magnitude less manpower per market. Maybe a solution for the future would be to have some dedicated "curated markets", which try to resolve as correctly as possible, maybe after admin/mod/trustworthy-ish votes?
@AlexTurner However it's slowing down and is matter of time mate, why tf was this at 400% when it always stayed ata >75%
@AlexTurner i mean why it fall to 40 when it always at 70+ when we have an announcement of no longer emergency
@AlexTurner Traders notice that the WHO will not explicitly declare the pandemic to be over, and contrary to similar questions, this one is quite clear in its resolution criteria.
This can not resolve yes at the moment. The resolution criteria say it resolves when the "World Health Organization officially declares the COVID-19 pandemic to be over". And the WHO advises "that it is time to transition to long-term management of the COVID-19 pandemic". So WHO did definitelly not declare the pandemic to be over.
@Primer I think you may be right, I've just sold my yes shares.
The description is slightly misleading, as it refers to covid-19 no longer being a 'major international concern', but based on the specific resolution criteria and this from the WHO website, I don't think this can resolve yes for now:
"On 5 May 2023, more than three years into the pandemic, the WHO Emergency Committee on COVID-19 recommended to the Director-General, who accepted the recommendation, that given the disease was by now well-established and ongoing, it no longer fit the definition of a PHEIC. This does not mean the pandemic itself is over, but the global emergency it has caused is, for now"
@firstuserhere people say that technically the end of "emergency" is not a declaration of pandemic finish.
Dring the deliberative session, the Committee members highlighted the decreasing trend in COVID-19 deaths, the decline in COVID-19 related hospitalizations and intensive care unit admissions, and the high levels of population immunity to SARS-CoV-2. The Committee’s position has been evolving over the last several months. While acknowledging the remaining uncertainties posted by potential evolution of SARS-CoV-2, they advised that it is time to transition to long-term management of the COVID-19 pandemic.
The WHO Director-General concurs with the advice offered by the Committee regarding the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic. He determines that COVID-19 is now an established and ongoing health issue which no longer constitutes a public health emergency of international concern (PHEIC)