Will this market be below 50% when it closes
Will this market be below 50% when it closes
12
250Ṁ962resolved Apr 1
Resolved
NO1H
6H
1D
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1M
ALL
Strictly less than 50% resolves to YES
Strictly more than 50% resolves to NO
Exactly 50% resolves to NA
Percentage used for resolving is what's shown after rounding, so what is shown on the website
Idea here is that buying any position moves the market in direction of lowering odds for your position
Also YES/NO resolutions are balanced, there's no "more probable" one
It should be an interesting experiment to see what will happen with such setup
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Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
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Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
What is this?
What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
Why use play money?
Why use play money?Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.