Will Trump or Biden get a post-debate bump?
Basic
21
Ṁ3.2kJul 8
1D
1W
1M
ALL
7%
Under .5 percentage point shift either way
7%
.5-1 percentage point shift to Biden
14%
.5-1 percentage point shift to Trump
4%
1-2 pp shift to Biden
24%
1-2 pp shift to Trump
3%
2-5 pp shift to Biden
22%
2-5 pp shift to Trump
3%
Over 5 pp shift to Biden
16%
Over 5 pp shift to Trump
Resolves according 538’s polling average among polls conducted in 10 days after the debate vs. polling average pre-debate. “Shift” means change in gap between Trump and Biden.
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