Resolves according 538’s polling average among polls conducted in 10 days after the debate vs. polling average pre-debate. “Shift” means change in gap between Trump and Biden.
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@traders The 538 polling average went from Trump +0.2 on June 27th (polling average pre-debate) to Trump +2.4 on July 7th (10 days after the debate).
I wrote "538’s polling average among polls conducted in 10 days after the debate". 538 appears to average across 14 days, so I cannot pull out the last 10 days easily. However, I think this issue is unlikely to influence how I resolve. If I could eliminate the June 24th-27th data from the 538 model, I think Trump's post-debate bump would be slightly higher but still between 2-5 pps.
Therefore, I am planning on resolving "2-5 pp shift toward Trump".