Will Kamala's odds of winning increase from 8/9 to 8/16 according to Nate Silver's model?
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1kṀ13kresolved Aug 17
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Resolves YES if the Electoral College probability for Harris in Nate Silver's model is >53.8% on Friday August 16th at 11:59 PM PT. Resolves NO otherwise.
Link: https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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As Scott Alexander teaches us, “Oh, that trend can’t possibly continue” has a really bad track record.