Are the polls biased towards Harris or Trump?
Standard
193
Ṁ19k
Nov 6
44%
Harris
37%
Trump
19%
Polls are accurate (within 1 percentage point of popular vote difference)

Resolves based on Nate Silver's national polling average and the results of the 2024 presidential election popular vote.

If Harris's polling average minus Trump's polling average (3.0 percentage points currently) is 1 percentage point higher than the result (Harris’s % of the popular vote minus Trump’s % of the popular vote), then resolves Harris.

If it is 1 percentage point lower, then resolves Trump

If the difference is less than 1 percentage point, then resolves "Polls are accurate"

https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model

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Bias or bi-ass? It is a simple joke of mine I am telling during the interviews, but a poll is being based on the bias of all the people it is asking! One day as the example, it is one cheek, the other day another you are sitting on. Are you not sitting on any one only? No! We are rotating.

@CryptoNeoLiberalist that's... Not what that means. Say you decide to make a poll asking if curry is delicious, and then exclusively poll Caucasians. You'd say the poll is meaningfully biased towards speaking of white people's tastes and doesn't speak for a broader group such as, Americans.

If Harris's polling average minus Trump's polling average (3.0 percentage points currently) is 1 percentage point higher than the result (Trump's % of the popular vote minus Harris's % of the popular vote), then resolves Harris.

You meant to write Trump - Harris both times I assume

@VitorBosshard Edited. I think it makes sense now (eg. projected Harris lead>real Harris lead->Harris)

bought Ṁ25 Polls are accurate (... YES

What a torturous question! Good job!

opened a Ṁ500 Trump NO at 41% order

Nice market!