@mods Why did this resolve before the popular vote market? The popular vote is not final yet. This seems especially odd when the mod who resolved this market has an active trade in this market. We shouldn't be resolving markets before they are certain so that mods can get extra liquidity back early.

@HenryRodgers If it turns out differently we can reresolve the market. But the odds are pretty fucking slim, right now it looks like the difference between polls and projected results are 4.5 points

And I don't think @WieDan did it for his own benefit, because he had less than one percent of his net worth in this market.

@Agh The point is that the Silver polling average ended at exactly D+1. For Harris is resolvable here, it means that it's resolvable that Trump won the popular vote. Why hasn't the other market closed then? I don't understand the discrepancy, it shouldn't be about slim odds it should be definite or not. If it's just that you don't want to go through the trouble of unresolving the market, fine, but at least admit that resolving this before it was called by media outlets is a wrong decision.

@HenryRodgers yeah sure, I personally would have waited a little bit more.

@HenryRodgers i agree op should've waited a bit longer, if it comes out the other way we will re-resolve it

The polling average says Harris +0.7 but his model says Harris +2.1 and largely ignores national polls in favor of extrapolating from state polls

@ChinmayTheMathGuy https://x.com/natesilver538/status/1853123659470188642?s=46

Could we get a sweepcash version of this question? Been a lot of talk about pollsters being out of their element this cycle. @mods

https://x.com/NateSilver538/status/1851399896860971450

Bias or bi-ass? It is a simple joke of mine I am telling during the interviews, but a poll is being based on the bias of all the people it is asking! One day as the example, it is one cheek, the other day another you are sitting on. Are you not sitting on any one only? No! We are rotating.

@CryptoNeoLiberalist that's... Not what that means. Say you decide to make a poll asking if curry is delicious, and then exclusively poll Caucasians. You'd say the poll is meaningfully biased towards speaking of white people's tastes and doesn't speak for a broader group such as, Americans.

If Harris's polling average minus Trump's polling average (3.0 percentage points currently) is 1 percentage point higher than the result (Trump's % of the popular vote minus Harris's % of the popular vote), then resolves Harris.

You meant to write Trump - Harris both times I assume

@VitorBosshard Edited. I think it makes sense now (eg. projected Harris lead>real Harris lead->Harris)

What a torturous question! Good job!

Nice market!