Resolves based on Nate Silver's national polling average and the results of the 2024 presidential election popular vote.
If Harris's polling average minus Trump's polling average (3.0 percentage points currently) is 1 percentage point higher than the result (Harris’s % of the popular vote minus Trump’s % of the popular vote), then resolves Harris.
If it is 1 percentage point lower, then resolves Trump
If the difference is less than 1 percentage point, then resolves "Polls are accurate"
https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model
@CryptoNeoLiberalist that's... Not what that means. Say you decide to make a poll asking if curry is delicious, and then exclusively poll Caucasians. You'd say the poll is meaningfully biased towards speaking of white people's tastes and doesn't speak for a broader group such as, Americans.
@VitorBosshard Edited. I think it makes sense now (eg. projected Harris lead>real Harris lead->Harris)