Resolves based on Nate Silver's national polling average and the results of the 2024 presidential election popular vote.

If Harris's polling average minus Trump's polling average (3.0 percentage points currently) is 1 percentage point higher than the result (Harris’s % of the popular vote minus Trump’s % of the popular vote), then resolves Harris.

If it is 1 percentage point lower, then resolves Trump

If the difference is less than 1 percentage point, then resolves "Polls are accurate"

https://www.natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-2024-president-election-polls-model

Silver Bulletin 2024 presidential election forecast

All the numbers for Trump vs. Harris.