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MANIFOLD
How many different riders will wear the yellow jersey at a Tour de France 2026 stage?
3
Ṁ175Ṁ17
2027
4.85 riders
expected
15%
Below 3
15%
3
15%
4
15%
5
15%
6
26%
Above 6

Resolution criteria

This market will resolve to the total number of different riders who wear the official Tour de France yellow jersey (maillot jaune) at any point during the 2026 Tour de France.

A rider is considered to have worn the yellow jersey if they meet at least one of the following conditions:

  1. They start any official stage (Stages 2 through 21) wearing the physical yellow jersey as the current leader of the General Classification (GC).

  2. They are officially presented with the yellow jersey as the GC leader on the podium following the completion of any stage (including Stage 1 or the final Stage 21).

Rules and Edge Cases:

  • If a rider leads the GC but withdraws from the race before the start of the next stage, they still count toward the total as long as they were officially presented with the jersey on the podium after the previous stage.

  • The overall winner of the 2026 Tour de France will count toward the total (as they are awarded the final yellow jersey on the podium after Stage 21), even if they did not start Stage 21 wearing it.

  • Canceled or neutralized stages will still count if a leader was officially designated and started the stage (or would have started the stage) wearing the yellow jersey.

  • The primary source of truth will be the official Tour de France website (https://www.letour.fr/) and its official stage results. ProCyclingStats (https://www.procyclingstats.com/) will be used as a secondary reference.

Background

The 2026 Tour de France represents the 113th edition of the historic Grand Tour, scheduled to run from July 4 to July 26, 2026. The race begins with an opening team time trial in Barcelona, Spain.

Historically, the number of unique yellow jersey wearers per Tour varies depending on GC competitiveness, breakaway success, and the route layout.

  • The modern record for the most unique yellow jersey wearers in a single Tour is 8, set in 1958 and 1987.

  • In recent editions, dominant GC riders (such as Tadej Pogačar or Jonas Vingegaard) have kept the total number of unique wearers relatively low, often between 3 and 5.

  • The inclusion of a team time trial to open the race on Stage 1 introduces a high likelihood of early GC shifts, potentially increasing the number of different wearers during the first week of the race.

Market context
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