Will I get into Stanford in 2023?
Devansh's College Admissions
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resolved Mar 31
Resolved
NO

https://manifold.markets/DevanshPandey/which-college-will-i-commit-to-in-m-406807ad001b

See this market for details about my college applications.

Get Ṁ200 play money

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bought Ṁ250 of NO

just hedging since i bought you going to Stanford in the other market

@Preen same, I think P(Devansh goes to Stanford | gets in) is very high

bought Ṁ50 of NO

Stanford has an acceptance rate of 4% (https://stanforddaily.com/2021/10/14/stanford-admit-rate-drops-to-record-low-3-95-for-the-class-of-2025/). Seems like a good base rate.

predicted NO

@rockenots To be fair, there are lots of Stanford applicants who are basically just YOLOing. I've heard the best estimates are that about half of applicants have approximately any chance of actually getting in, so I think 8% is a better base rate

bought Ṁ20 of NO

Stanford rejects most qualified applicants

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