Which college will I commit to in May? | Manifold Markets

closes Jun 1

Devansh's College Admissions

Which college will I commit to in May?

(update - i got into oxford but not stanford and have updated up a bunch on oxford)

I'm currently in the college application process.

My top choice is Stanford, followed by Oxford and UC Berkeley, then Harvard/Georgetown/Yale/Columbia. If I get into Stanford I will go, if I get into Oxford or Berkeley but not Stanford I'll go to one of them, otherwise it's a bit of a tossup.

My college profile - I have a weird/nontraditional college profile. 1600 on the SAT and 5 on four AP exams. I spent two years going to normal high school and got straight As, and now I'm going to a small microschool (6 students) taking ~10 college-level classes with advanced tutors (think linear algebra, intermediate microeconomics, ML/AI) and will graduate this year, a year "early".

See my Linkedin for a list of my extracurricular activities.

The resolution criteria is "which college do I put a deposit down for in May, if any." Thus, if I deposit at a college but then take a gap year, this resolves to THAT COLLEGE.

Oxford University

83%

Stanford University

11%

UC Berkeley

4%

Harvard University

2%

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Devanshbought Ṁ100 of Oxford University

Just got into Oxford

@Devansh Congrats!

Devansh Pandey answered

London School of Economics

Devanshsold Ṁ8

just got rejected ☹

Devansh Pandey answered

UC Berkeley

Austinbought Ṁ100

Go bears! "Berkeley golden bear doing math":

Berkeley golden bear doing math

Devanshbought Ṁ100 of Stanford University

The resolution criteria is "which college do I put a deposit down for in May, if any." Thus, if I deposit at a college but then take a gap year, this resolves to THAT COLLEGE.

John Gross-Whitaker bought Ṁ500 Oxford University from 79% to 83%

Edward bought Ṁ33 Stanford University from 11% to 13%

Pranav bought Ṁ60 Harvard University from 0.6% to 3%

Patrick Bennett bought Ṁ25 Oxford University at 82%

eulerphi bought Ṁ20 Stanford University from 11% to 12%

Rohan Shake bought Ṁ95 UC Berkeley from 1.1% to 5%

Patrick Bennett sold Ṁ20 Oxford University at 86%

Patrick Bennett bought Ṁ20 Oxford University at 86%

Patrick Bennett sold Ṁ29 Stanford University from 13% to 12%

Patrick Bennett sold Ṁ3 Don't go anywhere from 0.1% to 0.0%

Patrick Bennett sold Ṁ4 Harvard University from 0.8% to 0.7%

Patrick Bennett sold Ṁ28 UC Berkeley from 2% to 1.1%

power creep bought Ṁ25 Oxford University at 83%

Devansh sold Ṁ15 MIT from 1.0% to 0.4%

Devansh bought Ṁ15 MIT from 0.4% to 1.0%

Pranav bought Ṁ10 Harvard University from 0.5% to 0.8%

Pranav bought Ṁ10 MIT from 0.1% to 0.4%

Devansh bought Ṁ500 Oxford University from 80% to 84%

Devansh sold Ṁ0 Minerva University at 0.0%

Peter Bennett sold Ṁ1 Georgetown University from 0.1% to 0.0%

Peter Bennett sold Ṁ3 Harvard University from 0.7% to 0.6%

Peter Bennett sold Ṁ5 Columbia University from 0.6% to 0.4%

Peter Bennett sold Ṁ5 Duke University from 0.5% to 0.3%

Peter Bennett sold Ṁ1 Yale University from 0.1% to 0.0%

Peter Bennett sold Ṁ1 London School of Eco... from 0.1% to 0.0%

Peter Bennett sold Ṁ2 Georgetown University from 0.2% to 0.1%

Peter Bennett sold Ṁ8 Harvard University from 1.0% to 0.7%

Peter Bennett sold Ṁ9 UC Berkeley at 3%

Devansh bought Ṁ611 Oxford University from 72% to 79%

Devansh bought Ṁ1 Minerva University at 0.0%

Devansh sold Ṁ952 Oxford University from 82% to 72%

Devansh sold Ṁ1,037 Oxford University from 87% to 82%

Pranav bought Ṁ100 Stanford University from 6% to 9%

John Gross-Whitaker sold Ṁ4 Stanford University at 6%

John Gross-Whitaker sold Ṁ38 Stanford University from 7% to 6%

John Gross-Whitaker sold Ṁ6 Stanford University from 8% to 7%

John Gross-Whitaker sold Ṁ62 Stanford University from 9% to 8%

John Gross-Whitaker sold Ṁ17 Stanford University from 10% to 9%

John Gross-Whitaker bought Ṁ200 Oxford University from 86% to 87%

Luca Masters bought Ṁ250 Oxford University from 84% to 86%

Devansh sold Ṁ1,228 Oxford University from 89% to 84%

Devansh sold Ṁ13 Don't go anywhere from 0.5% to 0.1%

Devansh sold Ṁ998 Oxford University from 92% to 89%

Devansh sold Ṁ422 Oxford University at 92%

Devansh sold Ṁ61 Oxford University from 93% to 92%

Devansh sold Ṁ34 Oxford University at 93%

Devansh sold Ṁ29 Oxford University at 93%

Devansh sold Ṁ303 Oxford University at 93%

Devansh sold Ṁ39 Stanford University from 6% to 5%

Devansh sold Ṁ169 Stanford University from 9% to 6%

Related markets

Will I successfully graduate in May?89%

How many of {Harvard, Stanford, Yale, MIT, Columbia} will I get into?1.9

Will I get accepted into a prime number of colleges?36%

Will the college I go to have a prime number of letters?74%

Related markets

Will I successfully graduate in May?89%

How many of {Harvard, Stanford, Yale, MIT, Columbia} will I get into?1.9

Will I get accepted into a prime number of colleges?36%

Will the college I go to have a prime number of letters?74%