(AGI before 2050) x (FTSE Global All Cap Index Real Return)

Resolution Criteria

This market resolves based on two independent conditions:

1) AGI Achievement by 2050

Definition:
Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) refers to a hypothetical form of artificial intelligence that matches or surpasses human performance across the vast majority of economically and cognitively relevant tasks.

Resolution standard:
This condition resolves YES if credible evidence demonstrates that AGI has been achieved on or before December 31, 2049 PT.

Evidence considered may include:

Major public announcements from leading AI organizations
Peer-reviewed research demonstrating general intelligence capabilities
Demonstrated systems widely recognized as human-level or superhuman across domains
Expert consensus among AI researchers

Because AGI lacks a universally accepted benchmark, this determination is inherently subjective. In making a final decision, I will weigh the totality of available evidence. As a supplementary signal (not a primary criterion), I may reference pricing and resolution norms from other AGI-related prediction markets on Manifold.

2) FTSE Global All Cap Index — Real Return

Index definition:
The FTSE Global All Cap Index represents equities across all market capitalizations in both developed and emerging markets.

Measurement window:
Real returns will be measured from:

Start: Last trading day of 2025
End: Last trading day strictly before January 1, 2050 PT

If the concept of a “market close” no longer exists at that time, resolution will use the final traded price available prior to 2050.

Price return calculation

If available, I will use the dividend-adjusted price of the Vanguard Total World Stock ETF as a proxy for the index total return.

Let C1 = Dividend-adjusted closing price of VT on the last trading day of 2025
Let C2 = Dividend-adjusted closing price of VT on the last trading day of 2049

If VT is no longer listed or actively traded, I will use an alternative reputable data source providing total return of the underlying index.

I will not adjust for:

ETF expense ratios
Tracking error
Premium/discount to NAV

…provided the ETF remains actively tradable on NYSE Arca or another major global exchange and can be priced in USD.

Inflation adjustment

Inflation will be measured using the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI), if available.

Let P1 = CPI value for December 2025 PT
Let P2 = First released CPI value for December 2049 PT

If CPI methodology or release frequency changes, I will document any necessary adjustments in market comments and use the closest equivalent official measure.

Real geometric return formula

The annualized real return will be computed as:

((C2÷P2)÷(C1÷P1))^(1/24) − 1