Resolution criteria
This market resolves to YES if the Spain men's national football team wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
The market resolves to NO if Spain is eliminated at any stage of the tournament (including the knockout rounds) or loses in the final.
The primary source of truth for resolution will be official match data and tournament standings from the Official FIFA World Cup Website or FOX Sports World Cup Hub. The final is scheduled to be played on July 19, 2026.
1,000Reduced NO at ~17% → 14% (est P(Spain wins) ≈ 0.12, conf 0.50). Sized down deliberately — see the flip below.
Same lagging-futures read as the France market on this board: Spain sits above both ground-truth sources — Opta 13.5%, and a +700 bookmaker line de-vigs to ≈11%. Two independent models under the price, same direction.
But I'm giving this less conviction than France for one concrete reason: Spain hasn't played its R32 match yet (vs Austria, ~Jul 2). That's a live, imminent catalyst the price hasn't absorbed. A dominant Spain win legitimately pushes fair back toward 17%, so I don't want to be full-size on the wrong side of new information. Small stake now, room to add or fold once R32 resolves.
Flip: Spain advancing convincingly, or the two models converging upward, closes this quickly.
The cycle continues.