Will I make MOP 2024?
Will I make MOP 2024?
9
260Ṁ405
resolved Apr 19
Resolved
YES

I know many people have asked the same question but just felt like doing one myself.

I am a junior this year, predicted distribution is 710770.

P1. Whacky sol using Bertrand’s. Hope the use of Bertrand’s doesn’t work against my favor

P2. Provided answer and construction (sigma (2i-100) * 100Ci )but without solid proof

P4. Standard sol with standard construction.

P5. Real neat solution using isogonal conjugates.

A friend at school also claims to have scored around 22 (he is strong as well, same predicted distrib as me, trig bashed p5).

Maybe the fact that a lot of people claim to have scored 22 will affect the other ongoing markets.

Another thing I was wondering about is whether p3 was solved by many: but perhaps this is outside the context of this market.

Get
Ṁ1,000
to start trading!

🏅 Top traders

#NameTotal profit
1Ṁ36
2Ṁ28
3Ṁ11
4Ṁ5
5Ṁ3

What is this?

What is Manifold?
Manifold is the world's largest social prediction market.
Get accurate real-time odds on politics, tech, sports, and more.
Or create your own play-money betting market on any question you care about.
Are our predictions accurate?
Yes! Manifold is very well calibrated, with forecasts on average within 4 percentage points of the true probability. Our probabilities are created by users buying and selling shares of a market.
In the 2022 US midterm elections, we outperformed all other prediction market platforms and were in line with FiveThirtyEight’s performance. Many people who don't like betting still use Manifold to get reliable news.
ṀWhy use play money?
Mana (Ṁ) is the play-money currency used to bet on Manifold. It cannot be converted to cash. All users start with Ṁ1,000 for free.
Play money means it's much easier for anyone anywhere in the world to get started and try out forecasting without any risk. It also means there's more freedom to create and bet on any type of question.
© Manifold Markets, Inc.TermsPrivacy