This market aims to estimate when it will be viable to autonomously negotiate contracts of significant value.
Resolution: YES if any of the following are publicly verifiable:
1. A startup whose primary value proposition is autonomous contract negotiation raises a Series A+ ($10M+) round — verified via Crunchbase, press release, or SEC filing
2. Anthropic, OpenAI, Google DeepMind, or equivalent frontier lab announces a product/feature explicitly marketed as autonomous contract negotiation
3. A legal tech company (e.g., Ironclad, DocuSign) ships a feature explicitly described as autonomous negotiation of contract terms (not just redlining suggestions)
4. 3+ independent credible stories of companies using AI to conduct a contract negotiation autonomously where the contract value is likely >$1m (which I'll judge based on things like company size if data are unavailable)
Autonomous contract negotiation means that humans may set initial parameters and sign off on the final deal, but are not involved in negotiation rounds at all. Resolution will err conservative: news articles that discuss negotiation automation where humans are plausibly routinely involved in negotiation rounds will not be sufficient for positive resolution.
Update 2026-02-24 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has clarified that a shipped product is considered a reasonable signal of viability, even if the product is not widely used or proven to have utility. This confirms that resolution criteria #2 (product announcement from frontier labs) and #3 (shipped feature from legal tech companies) can resolve YES without requiring evidence of actual usage or customers.
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@ChurlishGambit bear in mind "frequently" isn't part of the resolution criteria, but the spirit of it is: enough autonomous contract negotiation that it's obviously not a stunt, even if the majority of negotiations are still manual
@DavidJohnston Wait so autonomous negotiations can be the MINORITY, & this still resolves "YES?"
& reviewing the criteria, I'm extra confused, because:
1. A startup whose primary value proposition is autonomous contract negotiation raises a Series A+ ($10M+) round — verified via Crunchbase, press release, or SEC filing
That means there could be ZERO autonomous negotiations, & this would resolve "YES." Plenty of companies that never even complete a product get $10m in funding.
2. Anthropic, OpenAI, Google DeepMind, or equivalent frontier lab announces a product/feature explicitly marketed as autonomous contract negotiation
This could also mean ZERO actual contracts are negotiated autonomously, it's just an announcement of a product. Not a final working product in actual usage.
@ChurlishGambit a) Yes, it's about viability (reworded) b) yeahhhh maybe I underrated the $10m funding but literally 0 customers case. Announced revenue/customers?
@DavidJohnston Sorry, edited my comment just as you replied. Criterion #2 also resolves YES before any actual autonomous negotiations happen. A product announcement comes WELL before actual usage, & may never even come into real usage.
#3 ALSO could have zero actual users, shipping a feature doesn't mean people use it.
@ChurlishGambit Are you satisfied with the reword to "viable" and leave the rest as is? I think a shipped product is a reasonable signal of viability, even if it's not a signal of utility.
@DavidJohnston viability is very different from "When will we get...?" though, you know? A lunar base has been viable for 40 years. Frequent bot contracts are viable already, even