Conditional on the Proposed TikTok ban/divestiture becoming law, which party wins the 2024 Election
21
1kṀ2428resolved Nov 6
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
100%49%
TikTok Bill passes, Republican wins
44%
TikTok Bill passes, Democrat wins
3%
TikTok Bill does not pass, Democrat wins
4%
TikTok Bill does not pass, Republican wins
Will resolve 50/50 between Democrat/Republican if a third party candidate wins.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ175 | |
| 2 | Ṁ170 | |
| 3 | Ṁ43 | |
| 4 | Ṁ39 | |
| 5 | Ṁ14 |
Sort by:
@ms This was created because someone told me they thought that if Biden signs the TikTok bill that'll be the moment he loses the 2024 election. I believe the purported connection is that it'll massively lower youth turnout, because they'll be so mad.
@DavidFWatson I like that there are a few other plausible correlations that push in different directions. Eg
TikTok bill success is a sign of…
…a well functioning Democrat party apparatus, as is a Biden win.
…a self-confident GOO that can tolerate bipartisan support for policy, suggestive of a Trump win.
People are also trading
Related questions
Which party will win the 2028 US presidential election?
If the TikTok ban takes effect, will ByteDance divest it OR shut it down in the U.S?
Will TikTok get fully banned in the USA if Donald Trump wins the election before the end of 2026?
10% chance
TikTok Ban Endgame: Which will happen first?
Conditional on the Tik-tok bill being passed, will the US government force a change in Twitter's ownership by 2030?
18% chance
Which party will win the 2028 US Presidential election?
Which party will win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
Conditional on which Party wins the Presidency in 2024, will Democrats win the House in 2026?
Which party will win the 2028 U.S. presidential election?