We are currently in the process of creating an integration for Twitch!
I am a partnered Twitch streamer and use to stream full time for a living before joining Manifold. So this project is something I am very excited about - although am aware at how hard it can be to get streamers to try new products/extensions.
Aim
To make a product that is significantly better than Twitch's built in betting system. Both in how powerful it is, but also how easy and fun it is to use for streamers/mods who have to set it up and for viewers who are betting. In ordered to be useful to a Twitch community, we will have to make sure it can all be done from Twitch (and OBS for the streamer) without having to visit Manifold other than the initial signup and linking of accounts. Hopefully people will then join our site and use it for other interests, but that would be an added bonus.
Twitch Chat Bot
The bot looks through chat and makes bets on users behalf based on simple commands they type.
It can also be used to let users know their balance, if they won/lost bets, and can be potentially used by mods to help the streamer resolve questions without having to go onto Manifold.
Browser Source (on screen feed of Market)
The onscreen element will allow users to follow the action. It should show live updates of bets being made by which users and reflect the probability changing throughout the game/event users are betting on.
OBS custom dock
(btw this is taken from a video and is not me haha)
Streamer's already have infinite tabs and things they have to manage. For them to want to use Manifold they need a super convenient way to choose markets to feature. Having a custom dock in OBS makes this super easy, and will also allow members of chat to create markets and add them to the group which they can choose from or make one themself!
Summary
Overall, this is only a brief explanation of how it would work, but hopefully gives some insight that will help you make your predictions! I'm also writing a proposal doc on the follow up work I intend to do that I'll link here: (some examples for now: partner with tournaments and have them use this, sponsor streamers, use it on my own stream, create challenges that cause streamer communities/individuals to compete against each other to see collectively who can make more Mana).
Resolution Criteria
All of the following have to be met within three months of the bot launch date (official launch is with the SBB tournament on the 29th of OCT. This puts the resolution date at 29th of Jan 2023) for it to be YES. I will try to avoid partial resolutions.
500+ people link a Manifold to a Twitch account
Ten streamers who were not paid/endorsed by Manifold use it regularly
At least 20% of streamers who are paid to use it continue to do so after their paid contract expires.
There are a few additional exceptional cases that would make me resolve as YES even if not all of the above are met. Examples would include:
Large viral event (huge streamer uses it, A-tier article written about it, approached by large tournament organiser for a future partnership)
Resolution criteria barely missed, but majority of users become very active on Manifold itself in addition to Twitch.
The tool is just insanely good at decreasing the average user acquisition cost of sponsorships even if it is simply a marketing tool and doesn't gain additional traction beyond that.
Close date updated to 2023-01-29 11:59 pm
Related questions
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@DavidChee One month after the tournament, could you share some information on the progress for this? Ie, number of linked accounts, number of streamers you're aware of using the bot, etc.
I'm also curious if you intend to include Destiny in the "large viral event" category even if they don't use the bot.
After seeing Destiny's fans use this I am more optimistic, because I think that "you can use it when no Twitch stream is going on" can be something which a streamer community really likes about Manifold, and then it will make them want to participate in the same markets and using the same account when using Twitch. I didn't think of that before when we were building it
@SirSalty What's the "bot launch date" for the purposes of this market, and will you be extending the resolution date to three months from then? I know the announcement post in the discord about the bot being "live and functioning" was on 9/19, but that pushes the end date to December.
@wasabipesto It's still buggy and not super great to use right now so I havent actually been using it/encouraging people to do so.
The official launch date is going to be on the 29th of OCT with the SBB tournament so it will 3 months from then (will update the description thanks for the reminder).
@wasabipesto oo very cool I've never seen this before. Can u explain briefly how it works? Did u manually enter all the numbers and create the distribution by hand? Was it just based off of your own intuition or something else?
@DavidChee For each variable you give it a range ("500 to 5000") and a distribution (uniform, normal, lognormal, etc) and it automatically generates a bunch of samples that match those criteria. Then you can create functions that work off those variables and it runs a "simulation" for each sample of each variable to show the distribution of possible final outcomes. I think it's a helpful tool when dealing with very large or very small numbers that are hard to intuit, instead you can give it ranges and combine those ranges in ways that make sense. (And it'd be super cool if Manifold had a way to embed them natively!)