Resolution criteria

• This market uses independent multiple choice: each answer resolves Yes/No independently based on public, verifiable evidence between 00:00 AKDT Aug 15, 2025 and 23:59 AKDT Aug 22, 2025 (Anchorage time).

• Evidence must be an official written statement, transcript, executive action, or a jointly issued document; if unavailable, two or more reputable wires (e.g., AP, Reuters) suffice.

• Proposed mappings for common answers:

  • “Ceasefire (at least during negotiations)” resolves Yes if both the Government of Ukraine and the Russian Federation publicly announce and/or sign a mutual ceasefire, truce, or cessation of hostilities taking effect on or before Aug 22, 2025. Unilateral or undefined “pauses” resolve No.

  • “Trump strengthens the US–European partnership vs Russia” resolves Yes if the US and EU publish a joint written statement or announce a coordinated, new Russia-related action (e.g., sanctions package, joint security/aid measure) explicitly tied to the summit, on or before Aug 22, 2025.

  • “US signals acceptance of Russia keeping occupied Ukrainian regions” resolves Yes if the US President or White House explicitly endorses or recognizes Russian sovereignty over any Ukrainian territory occupied/annexed by Russia (Crimea, Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, Kherson), or states the US will press Ukraine to cede such territory.

• If the in‑person Trump–Putin meeting in Anchorage does not occur on Aug 15, 2025, creators should add a “Summit canceled/does not occur” answer; otherwise this market resolves N/A.

• Primary resolution links (check for documents/pressers):

  • White House – Briefings & Statements

  • US State Dept – Press Releases/Statements

  • The Kremlin – President: Events/News

  • President of Ukraine – News

  • European Council/Commission – Press releases

  • Reputable wires for fallback: Reuters, AP

Background

• The White House announced an in‑person Trump–Putin meeting for Friday, Aug 15, 2025, in Anchorage at Joint Base Elmendorf‑Richardson. Local and national outlets reported the venue selection and preparations earlier this week. (kcra.com, cnbc.com)

• The summit centers on the Russia–Ukraine war; Trump had tied talks to pressure for a ceasefire, and floated punitive measures if progress stalled. European officials stress any deal must protect Ukrainian sovereignty. (cnbc.com, consilium.europa.eu)

• Coverage notes Putin’s aim to consolidate occupied territory, and skepticism that talks will quickly end the war; AP and Foreign Policy preview potential outcomes and risks. (apnews.com, foreignpolicy.com)

• Ukraine’s leadership has urged trilateral talks and a “just peace,” while warning against concessions on territory. (reuters.com)

• Commentators highlight Alaska’s symbolism and the ICC warrant context shaping optics of hosting Putin on US soil. (cadenaser.com)

Considerations

• Terminology matters: “ceasefire,” “truce,” “pause,” or “local/sectoral” halts are distinct; criteria above require a mutual, public ceasefire announcement by both governments.

• Joint US–EU actions may post after the photo‑op; the 7‑day window (through Aug 22) is included to capture coordinated measures that typically publish in the days following summits. (consilium.europa.eu)

• Off‑the‑cuff remarks don’t equal policy. Count only explicit endorsements/recognitions or formal joint texts for the “US acceptance of Russian control” outcome; ambiguous or conflicting reports default to No unless corroborated by official documents or two wires. (apnews.com)

• Update 2025-08-15 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - This market is about participants’ expectations/wishes, not objective outcomes.

  • The prior evidence-based resolution criteria and Aug 15–22 window do not apply.

  • The creator will resolve at their discretion based on expressed expectations/wishes, not on official documents or news reports.

• Update 2025-08-15 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - Subjective resolution: The creator will resolve based on their own judgment of whether each listed expectation was met.

  • Evidence window not binding: The Aug 15–22 AKDT window and prior document-based criteria will not strictly apply.

  • Timing: Resolution may be delayed beyond one week if needed.