What will be the first digit of the total volume bet on this market at close.
Mini
14
แน826
resolved Sep 3
100%89%
8
2%
1
2%
2
1.6%
3
1.0%
4
1.1%
5
1.0%
6
1.0%
7
0.9%
9

An experiment with benford's law.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Benford%27s_law

Benford's law assumes the log of the final number is distributed uniformly.

If we put an upper or lower bound on what the answer can be, we can calculate a distribution based on that (for example if there is already 500M spent on the market and we don't think it will ever go higher than 10,000M, then first digits 1-4 are less likely because we're already up to 500).

I've shared as view only, but you should be able to make a copy of the spreadsheet and put in your own numbers.

Get แน600 play money

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did you mean digit in the title ? Or is diget something else?

@Daniel_MC spelling error in the title

@higherLEVELING thanks appreciate it

Benford's law assumes the log of the final number is distributed uniformly.

If we put an upper or lower bound on what the answer can be, we can calculate a distribution based on that (for example if there is already 500M spent on the market and we don't think it will ever go higher than 10,000M, then first digits 1-4 are less likely because we're already up to 500).