An experiment with benford's law.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Benford%27s_law

Benford's law assumes the log of the final number is distributed uniformly.

If we put an upper or lower bound on what the answer can be, we can calculate a distribution based on that (for example if there is already 500M spent on the market and we don't think it will ever go higher than 10,000M, then first digits 1-4 are less likely because we're already up to 500).

I've made a spreadsheet to calculate this here:

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1hOWJ5WomQqkgAEUu22F_TpSjLMdsn8UcfBB2oFwiMLQ/edit?usp=drivesdk

I've shared as view only, but you should be able to make a copy of the spreadsheet and put in your own numbers.