I will roll a standard six-sided die each day to select a Yes/No question (e.g. rolling a 3 will mean I'm picking the third Yes/No question) and a second roll to determine the answer (1-3 = Yes, 4-6 = No). I will repeat this for five questions, betting 50 each time.

I will not bet on any additional questions. At the end of 30 days, if my total is greater than my current value of 11907 plus (30 * 250 = 7500) for the "free" streak bonus, for a total of 19407, it will resolve to YES; otherwise, it will resolve to NO. If it is equal, it will resolve to N/A.

I will be betting 250 on YES.

EDIT: I changed the number of bets from 4 to 5.

EDIT: I added 7500 to the starting value to compensate for the "free" points from the streak bonus.

EDIT: missed a day so I pushed the end date back a day.

## Related questions

If streak bonuses don’t count this is definitely very minus EV because you’ll be betting the unlikely side of the long odds bias. There are so many markets at 2-10% which should be zero, but you’ll take both sides with equal probability for the same size investment, so in expectation you own shares in the wrong side.

@JonathanRay Again, good point. I will get 250 * 30 = 7500 "free" credits. How much do you think I should subtract from the total? 7500? Half that? I want this to be fair.

@SGQ I will get 250 * 30 = 7500 "free" credits. I think I will add the "free" 7500 to the total base value.

@KongoLandwalker I just look at my home feed in the morning and start rolling. I'll keep it at a straight 50 per question.