Will randomly selecting questions and answers be a winning strategy?

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Ṁ7014

resolved Jul 10

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N/A

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I will roll a standard six-sided die each day to select a Yes/No question (e.g. rolling a 3 will mean I'm picking the third Yes/No question) and a second roll to determine the answer (1-3 = Yes, 4-6 = No). I will repeat this for five questions, betting 50 each time.

I will not bet on any additional questions. At the end of 30 days, if my total is greater than my current value of 11907 plus (30 * 250 = 7500) for the "free" streak bonus, for a total of 19407, it will resolve to YES; otherwise, it will resolve to NO. If it is equal, it will resolve to N/A.

I will be betting 250 on YES.

EDIT: I changed the number of bets from 4 to 5.

EDIT: I added 7500 to the starting value to compensate for the "free" points from the streak bonus.

EDIT: missed a day so I pushed the end date back a day.

This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.

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I've missed too many days.

Resolving to n/a

Noo, why? You can just push the end date by a week or so, I wouldn't mind. Is this really a reason to cancel the market?

As the second biggest NO holder I'm not happy rn

I missed a day, so I'm pushing the end date by a day.

I missed a day, so I'll be pushing back to end date a day.

If streak bonuses don’t count this is definitely very minus EV because you’ll be betting the unlikely side of the long odds bias. There are so many markets at 2-10% which should be zero, but you’ll take both sides with equal probability for the same size investment, so in expectation you own shares in the wrong side.

@JonathanRay The point is to determine whether a random selection would yield positive results.

@DanielGallant Do streak bonuses count?

@JonathanRay Again, good point. I will get 250 * 30 = 7500 "free" credits. How much do you think I should subtract from the total? 7500? Half that? I want this to be fair.

bought Ṁ250 YES

Wouldn't streak bonuses guarantee you get more mana than you're betting, each day? 50*4=200<250

@SGQ Excellent point. I will increase it to 5 yes/no questions to balance it out.

@SGQ I will get 250 * 30 = 7500 "free" credits. I think I will add the "free" 7500 to the total base value.

What's your prediction streak? Do you get 250 mana every day from that?
Also I'm guessing your existing bets might dominate the signal here, if any of them resolve.

@Mqrius it's at 7, and I'm increasing the number of bets to 5 to "use up" the streak bonus.

The third dice could define the amount to bet 10-60.

Where do you pick a list of questions from?

@KongoLandwalker I just look at my home feed in the morning and start rolling. I'll keep it at a straight 50 per question.

@DanielGallant are you hoing to repeat the experiment with other setting next month?

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