Will I beat Jacob Lagerros in the finals of the Manifest poker tournament?

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Ṁ230

resolved Sep 25

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We're former housemates who are both in the finals. Resolves Yes if I beat him, No if he beats me, N/A if one of us can't make it, or if we somehow tie, or if somehow our placements are incomparable.

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8 Comments

12 Holders

33 Trades

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bought Ṁ50 of NO

Jacob's a real try-er

@DanielFilan a comment by another former housemate of ours

See also: https://manifold.markets/DanielFilan/will-i-place-better-than-the-median?r=RGFuaWVsRmlsYW4

Will I place better than the median in the finals of the Manifest poker tournament?

44% chance. I advanced from my satellite tournament to the finals. I'm not exactly sure how many people will be in the finals (I think 2 people from each of 3 satellites, plus some small number of VIPs/professionals?), but presumably one will be able to rank people in the finals by order of elimination, and then by chip count among people who remain when they wrap it up. The question is: will I place better than median? That is, this would resolve yes if there was a 9-person table and I came 1st, 2nd, 3rd, or 4th, and no otherwise. Similarly, if there was a 6-person table and I came 1st, 2nd, or 3rd, it would resolve yes, and otherwise it would resolve no. If for some reason no ranking is produced (because e.g. there are multiple tables and the last 3 standing in each table merge into a new table), this will resolve N/A. I will not bet in this market.

bought Ṁ5 of NO

How much poker have both of you played individually or with each other?

@qurat I think we've played each other once or twice?

predicted NO

@DanielFilan According to you who is a better poker player based on your experience playing poker with Jacob so far?

predicted NO

@qurat Now that the game is over: My guess is that Jacob is better. Personally, I have played more than 10 but fewer than 100 games of hold'em in my life.