I'm going to give a side-event talk about how a few theoretical AI algorithms basically involve using prediction markets to be properly rational. Grimes is interested in AI and will be attending Manifest. Unfortunately, my talk is scheduled at the same time as Robin Hanson's talk (4 pm Saturday), and he's the guy who invented prediction markets.

I will ask at the start and at the end of my talk if any of the attendees is Grimes, and will resolve according to my best judgement (e.g. if Grimes comes in during the middle of the talk but isn't present at the start or at the end, I'll resolve yes, and if someone claims to be Grimes but I don't believe them, I'll resolve no). I will not bet in this market.