Will the cyber truck go into full production in 2023?
22%
chance
Same rules. Edge cases resolve no. Feb 1, 4:56pm: Full production in 2022 resolves yes. As long as they are still in full production in 2023.
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Odoacre avatar
Odoacre
bought Ṁ50 of NO

this article says:

The company is relying on older products and Musk said its Cybertruck, its next new electric pickup truck, would not begin volume production until [2024]. Reuters in November reported that the highly anticipated model would not be produced in volume until late [2023].

I'm assuming full production as per the market title = in volume

DanSparkman avatar

@Odoacre

Yes. Full production means in volume.

mndrix avatar
Michael Hendricks
is predicting YES at 23%

@DanSparkman How many Cybertrucks manufactured per week count as "in volume"? By some definition, no Tesla vehicle is in full production yet. Elon said on the earnings call that they have capacity to produce 2 million vehicles per year, but only expect to produce 1.8 million in 2023. The Model S and X have been in production for years but only produce ~1600/week together. Anyway, a specific number would help us price this market better. Thanks.

DanSparkman avatar

@mndrix

I'm sure a specific number would help. I don't know enough about Tesla to give you that number.

Lets say 2/3rds of their weekly production goals. 3 out of any 4 weeks.

But if you want the market to resolve that specifically are going to have to provide me with links to the info. When I made this market I was far more interested in the cyber truck than I am now.

Sorry, thats the risk on betting on a market that resolves however some random guy on the internet is feeling that day.

mndrix avatar
Michael Hendricks
is predicting YES at 22%

@DanSparkman Thanks for creating the market and sticking with it despite your waning interest in the Cybertruck.

I propose this as the resolution criteria: "This market resolves Yes if Tesla delivers more than 200 Cybertrucks during any three months of 2023"

This number is based on Tesla's quarterly report for 2017 Q3; the quarter when Model 3 went into production. That report repeatedly refers to Model 3 being in production and says that 222 vehicles were delivered. These are deliveries to paying customers, not prototypes or marketing vehicles. So it seems like Tesla considers production to start around that point.

It's harder to get similar numbers for Model Y since Tesla combines Model 3 and Model Y deliveries in their quarterly reports. Their 2020 Q1 report lists Model Y as "Status: Production". Third party estimates for that quarter put deliveries at very roughly 400. Since that's an estimate based on VIN count, I think the 200 number is more solid.

If you agree with this criteria and Manifold lets you edit the description, can you put it there for future reference? Thanks again.

mndrix avatar
Michael Hendricks
bought Ṁ77 of YES

Tesla said today that the Cybertruck is "on track to begin production later this year"

mndrix avatar
Michael Hendricks
is predicting YES at 37%

@mndrix on the 2022 Q4 earnings call held today, Elon said "we do expect production to start sometime this summer ... the start of production is always very slow but it increases exponentially ... when does volume production happen? That's next year"[1]

I guess we'll see how many trucks it takes for @DanSparkman to consider it "clear that Tesla is producing trucks."[2]

DanSparkman avatar

Same rules as a market I had for 2022. That one resolved no.

mndrix avatar

The description says "same rules". Same rules as what? Is there another market I should refer to?

Tetraspace avatar
Tetraspace
is predicting YES at 30%

@mndrix (Specifically this market)

MP avatar

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Tetraspace avatar
Tetraspace
bought Ṁ5 of YES
Full production in 2022 = NO, right?
Duncan avatar
Duncan
bought Ṁ1 of YES
#tesla #techology