Resolves yes if there is a major political shake up or if multiple talking heads are asking if china is going to make it. Or if I feel like their is a risk that they wouldn't make it.
To help calibrate. The jan 6th protests didn't seem like an existential risk to America at the time. But after a week or two I had changed my mind. Brexit is not an existential risk to Great Britain. The war in Ukraine is a risk to Ukraine but not currently russia. But could become a risk very quickly.
Aug 16, 11:15pm:
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This seems like the sort of question whose answer depends a lot on where you get your news. We're betting on what "multiple talking heads are asking" -- I don't know which, but I'm guessing they are far removed from facts on the ground in China. Might be useful to be a bit more specific about where you get your news, and how you make this call.
Considering the longest any Chinese political system has lasted in the last 1500 years is 70 years and it’s the current government this is always the case. We have no information at all about the true stability of the Chinese state, literally none, so this is pure gambling.
What if Xi is elevated to essentially leader for life but also has to give up a major political role or the role of commander in chief of the PLA, which he was only granted after his first term? The PLA is after all not a unified force like western militaries but rather a collection of militia each with loyalty to different political figures/warlords. These regional leaders might not want to be subject to Xi’s cult of personality…