Will a non-coinflip "Crystal" market with Ṁ1,000,000 of initial liquidity be created by the end of July?
Basic
23
29k
Jul 31
93%
chance

Since liquidity is returned to the creator upon resolution, some ground rules to prevent whale abuse:

  • Market must attract a minimum of 25 traders (this should be almost a given for a market with such huge liquidity)

  • Market should be about something legitimately predictive, ie, not just a true 50/50 coin flip

  • Market must not be intended or likely to resolve N/A (I'm not going to wait until resolution, but it should be clear)

  • Market must start with this liquidity, and not be upgraded to it after. I'll be a tiny bit lenient if it's immediately upgraded within an hour or so of creation, so the intent was to create a crystal market from the start.

Resolves YES if a market with Ṁ1M initial liquidity, or more, meeting these criteria is created by the end of July. This includes by Manifold itself. It also includes if Manifold renames things away from "Crystal", or introduces different tiering, as long as the initial liquidity is Ṁ1M or greater.

Resolves NO otherwise.

Get Ṁ600 play money
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bought Ṁ1,000 YES

This is now a crystal market, does this count for purposes of resolution?

https://manifold.markets/jack/who-will-win-the-2024-us-presidenti-8c1c8b2f8964

sold Ṁ26 NO

the initial liquidity is not 1M or greater, so I'm guessing not? a crystal market wasn't "created" in the usual sense? but also idk

@Bayesian @Qoiuoiuoiu ergh. I'm probably going to get some deserved low ratings for my poor criteria on this market.

Because both the title and the description explicitly say initial liquidity, I think I have to respect the bettors who have taken outside chance NO positions and say this doesn't count, and the market must have 1M+ liquidity upon creation.

Happy to take feedback on how to clarify that further.

does it have to be a crystal outright? no leeway on starting lower for a brief period?

I'll be a tiny bit lenient if it's immediately upgraded within an hour or so of creation, so the intent was to create a crystal market from the start.

From the description:
> Market must start with this liquidity, and not be upgraded to it after. I'll be a tiny bit lenient if it's immediately upgraded within an hour or so of creation, so the intent was to create a crystal market from the start.

yep! thanks for adding that @DanMan314

Why did this go up to 95%? Doesn't appear that any other one has been created, aside from the Crystal Coin Flip.

@PlasmaBallin At Manifest N.C. Young won a token that will allow them to make a crystal market. See: /NcyRocks/-what-question-will-i-use-my-free-c

Also Case got most of the liquidity back so they could create another crystal market if they felt inclined.

YES holders are encouraged to give me ideas so they can get their profits quicker!

bought Ṁ150 NO

What about a market that's effectively a 50/50 coin flip? something simple that is known to be unpredictable and with a known probability. stuff like "will this market go up tomorrow" which closes before tomorrow? I expect mostly only crystal markets like those to be created before july, but not sure whether they count as coin flippy enough. basically "the creator is roughly guaranteed to get their 1 million mana back" markets

@Bayesian I'm going to use my best discretion in interpreting "something legitimate". The idea is the market should be actually predictive - so for example, the Starshp market would have counted even though the probability was around 50%.

Would it be helpful if I just made the criteria a "ranked" market?

@DanMan314 that makes sense, thanks! Ranked market would make sense, yes, although a properly whalebait market would have counted in my mind, for this. up to you though. starship counting makes sense; wise people may disagree about the correct probability, actually predictive, etc.

@Bayesian Hmm yea I'm going to stick with my initial description and not pivot to ranked partway through the market. But yes, even if the creator can recoup most/all of their subsidy it counts as long as it's predictive.

oh noooo I didn't read the description! damn, I wish the lede weren't buried

@Stralor And yet you haven't sold your bet, very sus...

@Stralor Which lede? I wasn't trying to, I can add it to the title? The criteria in the description were just meant to prevent manipulating this market.

@DanMan314 I think it's the "not just a true 50/50 coin flip" condition, since the Crystal Coin Flip market was just created.

@TimothyJohnson5c16 Ah. Sorry about that.

bought Ṁ50 NO

There are diminishing returns to adding more liquidity to a market. At some point, adding extra liquidity actually makes it worse because there aren't enough traders with enough mana to move the market to the correct probability. I don't know exactly where that point is, but it's probably higher than 1M mana. The point where it's not worth spending extra money to make a prediction that's just a little bit better due to extra liquidity is probably way lower than 1M mana, though.