What will be true of the SCOTUS ruling on Trump's immunity case?

Trial of the Century•Trump indictment(s)•Supreme Court

Ṁ122

Ṁ390

Jul 31

ALL

77%

Draws a distinction between official and unofficial conduct in immunity

74%

Draws a distinction between official and unofficial conduct in immunity, and that Trump's election subversion was unofficial

66%

Draws a distinction between official and unofficial conduct in immunity, remands to lower courts whether it applies to Trump's election subversion

65%

Draws a distinction between official and unofficial conduct in immunity, and that Trump's election subversion was official

61%

Remands at least one decision to a lower court

40%

Grants some form of qualified immunity to Trump's election subversion

This market is inspired by this NYTimes article (gift link), "In Immunity Case, Trump Can Lose in Ways That Amount to a Win".

The exact contours of the ruling will likely matter a lot. There's quite a few markets on how the court will split, but (as far as I can see) few on the nuances of how the ruling will draw the line.

Answer submissions to the market should be about the ruling itself, not how the court will split, when it will happen, the world's reaction, etc. Ideally they could be answered just from reading the majority opinion.

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Thought this would be an interesting market format - prop bets specifically for the nuances of the ruling on Trump's SCOTUS immunity case. Add responses! I'll reimburse the creation costs of ones I think are good.