What will be true of the SCOTUS ruling on Trump's immunity case?

390Ṁ1341

resolved Jul 1

Resolved

YES

Remands at least one decision to a lower court

Resolved

YES

Draws a distinction between official and unofficial conduct in immunity

Resolved

YES

Draws a distinction between official and unofficial conduct in immunity, remands to lower courts whether it applies to Trump's election subversion

Resolved

Draws a distinction between official and unofficial conduct in immunity, and that Trump's election subversion was unofficial

Resolved

Grants some form of qualified immunity to Trump's election subversion

Resolved

Draws a distinction between official and unofficial conduct in immunity, and that Trump's election subversion was official

This market is inspired by this NYTimes article (gift link), "In Immunity Case, Trump Can Lose in Ways That Amount to a Win".

The exact contours of the ruling will likely matter a lot. There's quite a few markets on how the court will split, but (as far as I can see) few on the nuances of how the ruling will draw the line.

Answer submissions to the market should be about the ruling itself, not how the court will split, when it will happen, the world's reaction, etc. Ideally they could be answered just from reading the majority opinion.

Trial of the Century

Supreme Court

Trump indictment(s)

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bought Ṁ125 NO

Opinion seems to avoid taking any actual concrete positions on whether the conduct was official or unofficial. It discusses various factors but is ultimately like "idk this is hard bro the lower courts should figure it out"

"Determining whose characterization may be correct, and with respect to which conduct, requires a close analysis of

the indictment’s extensive and interrelated allegations."

reposted

Thought this would be an interesting market format - prop bets specifically for the nuances of the ruling on Trump's SCOTUS immunity case. Add responses! I'll reimburse the creation costs of ones I think are good.