What will be true of the SCOTUS ruling on Trump's immunity case?
Mini
7
172
Jul 31
80%
Remands at least one decision to a lower court
77%
Draws a distinction between official and unofficial conduct in immunity
74%
Draws a distinction between official and unofficial conduct in immunity, and that Trump's election subversion was unofficial
66%
Draws a distinction between official and unofficial conduct in immunity, remands to lower courts whether it applies to Trump's election subversion
65%
Draws a distinction between official and unofficial conduct in immunity, and that Trump's election subversion was official
40%
Grants some form of qualified immunity to Trump's election subversion

This market is inspired by this NYTimes article (gift link), "In Immunity Case, Trump Can Lose in Ways That Amount to a Win".

The exact contours of the ruling will likely matter a lot. There's quite a few markets on how the court will split, but (as far as I can see) few on the nuances of how the ruling will draw the line.

Answer submissions to the market should be about the ruling itself, not how the court will split, when it will happen, the world's reaction, etc. Ideally they could be answered just from reading the majority opinion.

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Thought this would be an interesting market format - prop bets specifically for the nuances of the ruling on Trump's SCOTUS immunity case. Add responses! I'll reimburse the creation costs of ones I think are good.

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