What will be true of the SCOTUS ruling on Trump's immunity case?
12
390Ṁ1341resolved Jul 1
Resolved
YESRemands at least one decision to a lower court
Resolved
YESDraws a distinction between official and unofficial conduct in immunity
Resolved
YESDraws a distinction between official and unofficial conduct in immunity, remands to lower courts whether it applies to Trump's election subversion
Resolved
NODraws a distinction between official and unofficial conduct in immunity, and that Trump's election subversion was unofficial
Resolved
NOGrants some form of qualified immunity to Trump's election subversion
Resolved
NODraws a distinction between official and unofficial conduct in immunity, and that Trump's election subversion was official
This market is inspired by this NYTimes article (gift link), "In Immunity Case, Trump Can Lose in Ways That Amount to a Win".
The exact contours of the ruling will likely matter a lot. There's quite a few markets on how the court will split, but (as far as I can see) few on the nuances of how the ruling will draw the line.
Answer submissions to the market should be about the ruling itself, not how the court will split, when it will happen, the world's reaction, etc. Ideally they could be answered just from reading the majority opinion.
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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