How will Donald Trump's Georgia election interference trial end?
15
44
465
Nov 1
64%
Guilty (of at least one crime) by jury verdict
19%
Dismissal / dropped charges
10%
Mistrial (without any guilty counts)
3%
Not guilty (on all counts) by jury verdict
3%
Plea bargain

Trump and 18 others were charged in August by Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis with participating in a scheme to illegally try to overturn his narrow loss to Democrat Joe Biden in the 2020 presidential election in Georgia. Among the others charged along with Trump are former White House chief of staff Mark Meadows and former New York mayor and Trump attorney Rudy Giuliani. The alleged scheme includes a wide-ranging list of alleged acts, including Trump’s infamous January 2021 phone call to Georgia’s secretary of state, an effort to replace Georgia’s Democratic presidential electors with ones who would vote for Trump, harassment of a Fulton County election worker and the unauthorized copying of data and software from elections equipment.

Close date may be extended as long as the outcome is unclear.

IMPORTANT: This market will resolve to the outcome that ends the trial. If some charges are dropped (or a plea bargain is struck), but others go all the way to a jury verdict, this market resolves to jury verdict.

For jury decisions on multiple counts that end the trial, resolves to the valid option listed highest in the description. Guilty if guilty on any counts, otherwise mistrial if mistrial on any counts, otherwise not guilty.

Resolution Details

Resolution options are as applied to Donald Trump specifically, although there are many defendants in the case.

Guilty (of at least one crime) by jury verdict: A jury declares Trump guilty of at least one crime.

Mistrial: The trial is declared a mistrial due to a hung jury (jury can't reach a unanimous verdict), procedural error, or misconduct. Resolves regardless of whether the case is retried.

Not guilty (of any crimes) by jury verdict: A jury clears Trump of all crimes

Plea bargain: Trump agrees to any sort of plea bargain, ending the trial. If there is a plea bargain on some charges, and a jury later rules Trump not guilty on the remaining charges, the market still resolves to "not guilty by jury verdict".

Dismissal / dropped charges: A judge drops all the charges, ending the trial, or dismisses the case for another reason. Includes the prosecution dropping charges with no plea deal.

Mistrial: The trial is declared a mistrial due to a hung jury (jury can't reach a unanimous verdict), procedural error, or misconduct. Resolves regardless of whether the case is retried.

If there is an outcome that is not enumerated here, I reserve the right to split resolution or resolve N/A, but I will try my best not to. I will not bet. This market is about the initial lawsuit, not any appeals or retrials.

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