Centered, Exponential, Unlinked, Time Weighted Keynesian Beauty Contest (The Market, KBC edition)
Basic
18
9.5k
resolved Mar 29
Resolved
54%
-1
Resolved
46%
0
Resolved
NO
1
Resolved
NO
-2
Resolved
NO
2
Resolved
NO
4
Resolved
NO
-4
Resolved
NO
8
Resolved
NO
-8
Resolved
NO
16
Resolved
NO
-16
Resolved
NO
32
Resolved
NO
-32
Resolved
NO
64
Resolved
NO
-64
Resolved
NO
128
Resolved
NO
-128
Resolved
NO
256
Resolved
NO
-256

AGAIN! In this version, the options increase and decrease exponentially to +/- 256, AND for maximum chaos, the market options independent! The resolution rules are the same, meaning the cumulative resolution will only be 100% split among 2 options.

The Keynesian Beauty Contest is a game theory experiment where a group of players are asked to guess a number between 0 and 100.. The winner of the contest is the player(s) who guess closest to half the average of all the guesses.

This is an attempt to perform this experiment on Manifold, but using continuous averaging of options. At close I will resolve the market to a linear weighting of the options above and below half the average of the unrounded probability weighted value of the options OVER TIME.

For example, if all options are bid down to 0% except 32 and 64, and 32 stays at 30% the whole time, and 64 stays at 70%, the final result is (32*.3 + 64*.7) / 2 = 54.4 / 2 = 27.2, which would mean this market would resolve to 30% 16, 70% 32.

Obscenely grotesquely unnecessary? Wildly and willfully overcomplicated? We're all nerds here, deal with it.

First version of the code: https://pastebin.com/Q13ipby3

This may not be the final version I use to resolve the market. I'll re-run it when I feel like it, and post the output - I'm not holding myself to any particular schedule.

``````Output 03/26 11:48AM PST

Total Bets: 167
Current Weighted Sum: -0.3686103190591221

Time Weighted Sum: -1.1827012378023802
Resolution: 59% -1, 41% 0``````
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FINAL RESULTS

``````Current Weighted Sum: -0.018058077471688083

Time Weighted Sum: -1.0750580156995653