
What sentence will Merchan initially give Trump for his convictions in the Stormy case?
40
1kṀ6423resolved Jan 14
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6H
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Resolved
N/AJail (or prison) time, any amount
Resolved
NOFines, punitive
Resolved
NOProbation, 12+ months
Resolved
NOProbation. 6-12 months
Question resolves when Judge Merchan hands down his initial sentence, currently slated for July 11th; now slated for Sept 18th [1]. The sentence is what is written in the order.
Any subsequent event (appeals, sentence enhancements, contempt sentences, actually serving the sentence or not, going on the lam, etc) is irrelevant.
[1] https://x.com/kaitlancollins/status/1808213730678772211
This question is managed and resolved by Manifold.
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@SteveSokolowski I didn’t attempt to list all possible outcomes, was thinking it would be better to allow others to add as they arise.
So feel free to add the option, if you do I’ll spend some mana on it.