What sentence will Merchan initially give Trump for his convictions in the Stormy case?
Jul 12
Jail (or prison) time, any amount
Probation. 6-12 months
Probation, 12+ months
Fines, punitive

Question resolves when Judge Merchan hands down his initial sentence, currently slated for July 11th. The sentence is what is written in the order.

Any subsequent event (appeals, sentence enhancements, contempt sentences, actually serving the sentence or not, going on the lam, etc) is irrelevant.

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House arrest isn't listed here, and that's one of the most likely outcomes.

@SteveSokolowski I didn’t attempt to list all possible outcomes, was thinking it would be better to allow others to add as they arise.

So feel free to add the option, if you do I’ll spend some mana on it.