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MANIFOLD
What will Trump have meant by posting "a whole civilization will die tonight" on social media today?
19
Ṁ125Ṁ900
resolved Apr 11
Resolved
YES
Nothing (Empty Words)
Resolved
NO
US Strikes Iranian Civilian Infrastructure
Resolved
NO
US Launches Ground Invasion of Iran
Resolved
NO
US Uses Nuclear Weapons
Resolved
NO
Dissolution of the United States

https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/116363336033995961

  • Update 2026-04-10 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator intends to resolve this as "empty words" (i.e., the post had no significant real-world meaning or consequence) unless traders dispute this resolution.

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@traders Resolving empty words unless there is a dispute?

@Damin kinda feels like this should n/a, since the cease fire happened?

@JoeandSeth Do you mean to interpret it as the ceasefire prevented us from finding of what he meant / would have actually done?

My interpretation is instead that he is unpredictable and bluffs a lot, so doing a ceasefire counts as bluffing / nothing happening.

@Damin yes, this is my interpretation.

The alternate sounds strange to me, to treat the ceasefire itself as the intended interpretation of what trump meant by "a whole civilization dying," rather than the intended result so that Iran doesn't find out what he meant.

@JoeandSeth https://www.wsj.com/politics/national-security/trump-public-bravado-private-fear-59814dca

It seems like this article supports the idea that he didn't actually intend to execute a specific thing by making the civilization comment.

https://x.com/RichardHanania/status/2045846092097667555

@Damin shrug.

But we didnt actually find out, and this market was not written as "what will the wsj conclude trump meant"

And, there's still a huge difference between "not one specific thing" and "nothing"

'Nothing' _is_ a specific thing.