I will not bet on this market to avoid motivated reasoning.

Before I go into the movie I will give a rating 1-10 for how good I expect the movie will be. Once I leave I will consider how good I thought the movie actually was and rate it on the same scale.

This market resolves to “yes” if the post-movie score is higher than the pre-movie score, and “no” if it is the same or lower. I’ll also leave a comment with my ratings.

This movie resolves to “n/a” if a full length movie featuring Paul Rudd as Ant Man is not released between now and 1st January 2030. For “full length”, the movie must be at least an hour long and shown in cinemas. If Ant Man only appears in end credit scenes then it doesn’t count.

I will judge the movie as a whole, not Rudd’s performance specifically, and I’ll use my own subjective judgment rather than some objective criteria. Here are my ratings for previous movies with Rudd as Ant Man:

Ant-Man (2015). Pre: 2. Post: 6.

Captain America: Civil War. Pre: 7. Post: 6.

Ant Man and the Wasp (2018): Pre: 5. Post: 6.

Avengers Endgame: Pre: 8. Post: 4.

Ant Man and the Wasp Quantumania: Pre: 5. Post: 4.