Will a Democrat win the popular vote in ALL of the following presidential elections: 2024, 2028, 2032, 2036, 2040
17
56
1k
2040
23%
chance

For additional context, here's the popular vote percentages in the U.S. Presidential elections going back to 1960. Note, the numbers are from ChatGPT, I verified several but not all of them.

2020:

- Dem (Joe Biden) - 51.3% (81.2 M)

- Rep (Donald Trump) - 46.8% (74.2 M)

- All Other - 2.0% (3.1 M)

- Total votes cast: ~158.5 M

- Winning Margin: 4.5% (7 M) - Dem

2016:

- Dem (Hillary Clinton) - 48.2% (65.8 M)

- Rep (Donald Trump) - 46.1% (62.9 M)

- All Other - 5.7% (7.8 M)

- Total votes cast: ~136.5 M

- Winning Margin: 2.1% (2.9 M) - Dem

2012:

- Dem (Barack Obama) - 51.1% (65.9 M)

- Rep (Mitt Romney) - 47.2% (60.9 M)

- All Other - 1.7% (2.2 M)

- Total votes cast: ~129 M

- Winning Margin: 3.9% (5 M) - Dem

2008:

- Dem (Barack Obama) - 52.9% (69.5 M)

- Rep (John McCain) - 45.7% (59.9 M)

- All Other - 1.4% (1.8 M)

- Total votes cast: ~131.2 M

- Winning Margin: 7.2% (9.6 M) - Dem

2004:

- Dem (John Kerry) - 48.3% (59.0 M)

- Rep (George W. Bush) - 50.7% (62.0 M)

- All Other - 1.0% (1.2 M)

- Total votes cast: ~122.2 M

- Winning Margin: 2.4% (3 M) - Rep

2000:

- Dem (Al Gore) - 48.4% (50.9 M)

- Rep (George W. Bush) - 47.9% (50.4 M)

- All Other - 3.7% (3.9 M)

- Total votes cast: ~105.2 M

- Winning Margin: 0.5% (0.5 M) - Dem

1996:

- Dem (Bill Clinton) - 49.2% (47.4 M)

- Rep (Bob Dole) - 40.7% (39.1 M)

- All Other - 10.1% (9.7 M)

- Total votes cast: ~96.2 M

- Winning Margin: 8.5% (8.3 M) - Dem

1992:

- Dem (Bill Clinton) - 43.0% (44.9 M)

- Rep (George H. W. Bush) - 37.4% (39.1 M)

- All Other - 19.6% (20.4 M)

- Total votes cast: ~104.4 M

- Winning Margin: 5.6% (5.8 M) - Dem

1988:

- Dem (Michael Dukakis) - 45.6% (41.8 M)

- Rep (George H. W. Bush) - 53.4% (48.9 M)

- All Other - 1.0% (0.9 M)

- Total votes cast: ~91.6 M

- Winning Margin: 7.8% (7.1 M) - Rep

1984:

- Dem (Walter Mondale) - 40.6% (37.6 M)

- Rep (Ronald Reagan) - 58.8% (54.5 M)

- All Other - 0.6% (0.6 M)

- Total votes cast: ~92.7 M

- Winning Margin: 18.2% (16.9 M) - Rep

1980:

- Dem (Jimmy Carter) - 41.0% (35.5 M)

- Rep (Ronald Reagan) - 50.7% (43.9 M)

- All Other - 8.3% (7.2 M)

- Total votes cast: ~86.6 M

- Winning Margin: 9.7% (8.4 M) - Rep

1976:

- Dem (Jimmy Carter) - 50.1% (40.8 M)

- Rep (Gerald Ford) - 48.0% (39.1 M)

- All Other - 1.9% (1.5 M)

- Total votes cast: ~81.4 M

- Winning Margin: 2.1% (1.7 M) - Dem

1972:

- Dem (George McGovern) - 37.5% (29.2 M)

- Rep (Richard Nixon) - 60.7% (47.2 M)

- All Other - 1.8% (1.4 M)

- Total votes cast: ~77.8 M

- Winning Margin: 23.2% (18 M) - Rep

1968:

- Dem (Hubert Humphrey) - 42.7% (31.3 M)

- Rep (Richard Nixon) - 43.4% (31.8 M)

- All Other - 13.9% (10.2 M)

- Total votes cast: ~73.3 M

- Winning Margin: 0.7% (0.5 M) - Rep

1964:

- Dem (Lyndon B. Johnson) - 61.1% (43.1 M)

- Rep (Barry Goldwater) - 38.5% (27.2 M)

- All Other - 0.4% (0.3 M)

- Total votes cast: ~70.6 M

- Winning Margin: 22.6% (15.9 M) - Dem

1960:

- Dem (John F. Kennedy) - 49.7% (34.2 M)

- Rep (Richard Nixon) - 49.5% (34.1 M)

- All Other - 0.8% (0.6 M)

- Total votes cast: ~68.9 M

- Winning Margin: 0.2% (0.1 M) - Dem

Note: Percentages and vote counts are approximate and may not add up to 100% or the total number of votes due to rounding.

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What is "win"? Plurality or majority?

predicts YES

@AlQuinn Plurality

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