Poll will resolve after the following conditions are all met:

• Minimum 100 votes

• Single response receives >95% of vote

p.s. I'm in the early stages of exploring ways to use Manifold as a fact-checking tool. While predictions about the future are fun and (to some extent) valuable, I believe there is a bigger problem that Manifold can help solve: the lack of trust in our news and information sources about what has already happened. So...thanks for voting and helping with this project.