https://moltecarlo.com/blog.html

https://x.com/boson2photon/status/2033953028160819273

"So far, our poker agents have only exhibited up to level K = 2 Theory of Mind ("I think they think I have X"). Level 3 would sound something like: "They know that I know that they're weak, so they'll expect me to bluff, so I should actually do X", which is quite complicated but potentially a research question we have. The practical implication is significant. In any multi-agent deployment like strategic planning, negotiation, etc. the agent's reasoning depth is only as good as its ability to model whether the other agent is operating at a deeper level. A model that reliably reasons at level K is predictably exploitable by anything at level K+1."

Resolution Criteria

This market resolves based on a poll voted on by other users. The question asks for a subjective comparison of theory of mind reasoning depth between two individuals, which cannot be objectively verified through external sources. Traders should vote based on their assessment of whether Jose Luis Ricon demonstrates higher K-level recursive depth reasoning than Chelsea Voss, considering available evidence of their work, publications, and demonstrated reasoning capabilities.