I'm a UC Berkeley student with some upcoming finals in three classes (plus some others that are low-stakes) in three weeks.

UGBA 101B: Macroeconomic Analysis for Business Decisions:
Math 54: Linear Algebra & Differential Equations:
CS61b: Data Structures and Algorithms

Performance on past exams and commentary:

CS61b: Scored 73rd percentile +1SD on first exam. Skipped the second exam due to full clobber policy. I'm currently extremely behind (basically have not looked at content since before MT2, 4 weeks ago). Planning to study extremely hard for this exam. Will resolve to the final grade that my score would create if applied via clobber to all exams using the curving policy described on the 61b website https://sp25.datastructur.es/policies/, assuming a perfect score on all non-exam assignments 2.5 points of extra credit. I know this is confusing, so I estimate that >65th percentile will equate to an A, while >85th percentile would equate to an A+.

UGBA 101b: Scored the lowest possible score for an A on the first exam (+1.1SD). had to take a makeup exam, on which I scored the highest grade in the class out of only 12 students, so +1.5SD. A = +1SD = A+ = +2SD. Planning to study only moderately hard for this, since I think it is mostly irrelevant how much I study past a certain point.

Math 54: Scored +1.1SD on the first exam, 0SD on the second exam (was forced to take it at the last moment with extremely insufficient preparation because I expected to be able to postpone the exam due to illness, but was told at the last minute that I couldn't. I've since started working harder in the class because I probably need +1.5SD now to salvage an A. This market is based on SD because there is no obvious translation of scores to grades.

Priors on my academic ability:

SAT Score: 1600
AP scores: 20 exams, 17 5/5s, 3 4/5s
Current GPA: 3.96 (from only 2 semesters of mostly gen-eds and one CS class, which I got an A in).

I have taken 11 exams at Berkeley. I believe I've scored >=1SD on 10/11 and >1.5sd on ~3/11, though I don't remember exactly.

My market on whether I will get my life together, including how much I will study in the next two weeks, may be relevant.

I will intermittently buy the higher options for each exam to motivate myself as I get mana, even if I think they are inflated. I will post a recap on how each exam goes in the comments. I won't trade on a market relating to an exam after taking the exam. Only one market can resolves YES for each exam: others will resolve NO. In the event of an exact tie (e.g, exactly +1SD), boundary markets will both resolve YES, but the other market will resolve NO, but this is extremely unlikely (<0.01%).

https://manifold.markets/CrypticQccZ/will-i-get-my-life-together-in-the#yPL2OgOnUtgO

Will I get my life together in the next two weeks? (Prop bets)

I have been off track with many of my goals lately. I've found that making these markets has motivated me to work harder on my goals, ever since making my market on my 5k time. To help motivate myself, I will buy 100 mana of YES on everything, even if I think the price is bad or know I will lose. Options are not linked. This market closes on Wednesday, May 7 at midnight. Relevant information: Running: My strava https://www.strava.com/athletes/45805350 I haven't run every day for a two week period for years. My math quiz grades: 4/5 of the quizzes I've taken have been perfect scores. These quizzes are generally not difficult: if I put in the work to study, I can most likely achieve a perfect scores. The quiz is on Wednesday, Apr. 30 Study spreadsheet: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/11crhOWL8Njr0l2UX2eh-UY-I6UYJcEnY6LNwHWflSA8/edit?usp=sharing I've studied <10 hours for the last 6 weeks, but finals are close, so I should step it up. I should be able to do this Assignments >24hrs: I literally think that I have done this three times since the beginning of the semester 12 weeks ago (~50 assignments), but this is easily doable. I probably only have ~5 assignments in the next two weeks. Sleep before 1am and wake up before 8AM on more than 10/14 days: I have done this on ~10% of days in the past, but obviously since I am putting this here I am making more of an effort to do this for the next two weeks. Whether I do this is also tracked in the spraedsheet linked above. Substack: One of the posts is mostly done, but I haven't put that much work into finishing it. Each post is probably takes me ~6 hours to finish a draft for. App into deployment: My app is almost done, but I need to deploy it. This can definitely be done in the next two weeks if I spend ~30-40 hours on it, but I keep putting it off. Finalize the team: I'm in talks with a few people, but again, I need to hammer down and finalize my decision. I don't really know how to estimate how feasible this is: it might resolve NO even if I follow my goals faithfully, since it may be legitimate for me to delay longer. Screen time: My screen time for the last week here I have data (Apr 13 - Apr 19) was 8h12m. I'm pretty sure I have not had a week of <5hrs since coming to college. I have taken some steps, though, like installing a new screen time app and removing Instagram and Reddit from my phone, which are my most-used apps Spreadsheet will be updated every day before midnight.

Markets for an exam resolve as soon as exam results are available, so probably around 5/25.