Will the Kerch Strait Crimean Bridge be partially destroyed (again) by 02 May 2023
47%
chance

It was bombed in October 2023 for Putin's birthday, temporarily closing the railway line and destroying sections of one of two road decks. The railway still operates, and the bridge is open to light traffic but as of 07 Dec 2022 it was not carrying lorries or fully redecked.

This question resolves yes if the railway line, repaired lorry access or the remaining road access are prevented from working for at least 13 days following an attack on the bridge by anyone (including Russia).

If no attack has occurred by the market closure, this resolves no. If an attack occurs close to the deadline I'll extend the market closure time to 13 days after the attack to see the result. If further attacks after 02may make that hard to judge it will resolve n/a (and you get your money back).

My personal prediction is the railway line, but leaving the light road access as a retreat option for Russian troops.