Will there be a resurgence in the popularity of transom windows by the end of this decade (2020s)?
2
1kṀ152
2030
48%
chance

Background
Transom windows - horizontal windows placed above doors or other windows - were a common architectural feature in homes built before the 1970s. They serve both functional and aesthetic purposes, providing additional natural light, ventilation, and architectural interest. Recent trends show increasing interest in these features as homeowners seek ways to maximize natural light and create more open-feeling spaces.

Resolution Criteria
This market will resolve YES if by December 31, 2029:

  • Industry data shows a significant increase (>25% compared to 2023 levels) in transom window installations in new residential construction, OR

  • Multiple major industry reports/surveys indicate transom windows have become a mainstream design trend, OR

  • At least three of the top five U.S. window manufacturers report substantial growth in transom window sales compared to 2023 levels

The market will resolve NO if these criteria are not met by the end of 2029.

Considerations

  • Current architectural trends favoring indoor/outdoor living spaces and energy efficiency align well with transom window benefits

  • Supply chain issues or changes in building codes could impact adoption rates

  • The definition of "resurgence" is somewhat subjective, but the resolution criteria provide specific measurable benchmarks

  • Economic conditions affecting home construction and renovation rates could influence the outcome

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